I was given some shit in this thread and subtweeted by a couple of self-proclaimed Wyckoffian "experts" because of the thought process of this being distribution.

Now we've seen the playout let's look at why I came to the distribution argument a couple of months back. https://twitter.com/ColdBloodShill/status/1189524126488285184

This was the full picture we were dealing with, the range at $13k showing clear signs of distribution with supply dominating the range. Important here is the volume that supported the breakdown from the range (9k break)

The region marked in red shows where others believed we were demonstrating signs of a spring for reaccumulation. There are major issues with this thought process.

Firstly, we simply spend too long outside of the range for this to be considered a spring. Springs are quick, they are the last "fooling" of the public for the direction of the asset before quickly returning to a prior trading range.

Secondly. We never made it back to the trading range. We simply failed at the breakdown level - the neckline. There was no completed spring, test or any other attribution that could be considered bullish.

Thirdly. Volume. I kept hearing the argument "throwbacks aren't completed on this high volume" - it's simply the worst argument I've ever heard to try and disprove this approach. Volume from the 9k breakdown was comparable, given the wick on the 4h neckline break adding sells.

Disregarding this as a throwback was a fatal error. Disregarding it because it did not line up with a "textbook definition" was just plain stupidity. There were so many confluent factors and I'd argue by this point emotional bias was driving any analysis.

Wyckoff is all about interpretation. We typically never see "perfect" playouts, it's about taking the information you are given and working with it to try and paint the picture. I'd argue many Wyckoffians got so caught up in the pump they forgot what happened to the left.

Where I got caught out was here:
https://twitter.com/ColdBloodShill/status/1187211929284202496?s=20

I didn't think we'd get the 9k test and instead thought we're see the action we've seen since $9k dominating the PA. But since the retest it's been textbook distribution, consolidate, leg down, rinse and repeat.

We do not break down from a 3 month distribution range to simply move back up and continue as though nothing happened. The reason being is that the hard work by the large interests has been completed in that range. The train is in motion and apart from a few small stops, it moves

To illustrate the point that once the work has been done, you can't stop the train, all you have to do is view the weekly.

Look at the last reaction from the accumulation zone. Breakout and 3 months of uptrend.

We broke down from a distribution zone. X months of downtrend?

These accumulation and distribution cycles have lasted roughly 3 - 5 months on $BTC. With the playout of those lasting a similar length of time. The $9k retest definitely caught me by surprise, but once the dust had settled, it simply added more evidence to the original plan.

I'm expecting this markdown process to complete at some point over the next couple of months into 2020. From there I believe we'll see a new accumulation range develop. I'm not expecting new major upside action until Q2 2020 and that's pending accumulation not re-distribution...

TL:DR Wyckoff is all about evidence. Using available evidence to determine the overall market direction/position in the cycle. Major clues and evidence were overlooked by many because of the China candle. Those who kept level-headed, reaped the rewards.