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I covered Bloomberg in City Hall for a couple years and have a few thoughts about his presidential candidacy now that it’s been officially announced.
There was probably a legitimate center lane for Bloomberg — particularly since no one else seems to be running away with it yet, but he’d need to play it perfectly since he’s coming in late and has *a lot* of liabilities. So far, seems his strategy is majorly flawed.
First off let’s run through the liabilities. There’s the accusations of sexism, which he hasn’t exactly been willing to address thoughtfully in the past. Check out this exchange I had with him in 2013. https://www.google.com/amp/s/observer.com/2013/01/mayor-bloomberg-calls-sexism-questions-an-outrage/amp/
And while his strategy is premised on a nine figure ad blitz, that highlights another liability — he’s a billionaire in a moment when the Dem base has viewed that class’ very existence as a policy failure. Also, it raises the specter of trying to buy an election.
Then, of course there’s Bloomberg’s efforts to defend stop and frisk, which has already proved to be a campaign issue for him.
In a moment where other candidates, particularly Booker and Bernie, are highlighting housing issues, I could also see Bloomy’s role in NYC’s intense gentrification these past two decades coming up on the trail.
There’s also the heavy suppression of protests — including those for police reform and Occupy — that took place on Bloomberg’s watch. It’s not something that I think has national reknown, but can’t imagine Dem base will love stories like this ... https://www.google.com/amp/s/observer.com/2011/11/amidst-violence-and-arrests-police-clear-zuccotti-park/amp/
And then there’s the fact Bloomberg was, as his ad highlights, a three term mayor. Not sure folks are aware of this nationally but he basically bypassed existing rules and the will of the voters to take an extra term above usual limits. That’s another thing that could come up!
This is a lot of potential campaign baggage, but I do think Bloomberg with his resources and record could overcome it. Still, you’d need to mount a really great campaign and his has started with giving rivals over half a year head start.
Along with giving his opponents an overall head start, Bloomberg isn’t even on the ballot in New Hampshire, which strikes me as a critical unforced error. Based on all the coverage and rumblings, Bloomberg decided to jump in ahead of that deadline and just didn’t file.
I assume Bloomberg and his people felt like he was late and didn’t have a great shot to finish near the top in NH. I can see that making it tempting to take your ball and go home. To position yourself to declare we can’t possibly know how you *would* have done.
Still, couldn’t you make that argument while still showing up at least a bit? This leaves delegates on the table and gives me an overwhelming sense of deja vu.
We have literally already seen a NYC mayor with national profile declare they could become president wi th our playing in the early states. It was Rudy Giuliani and we saw how that worked out.
Rudy’s failed experiment showed that you can’t overcome the momentum and coverage candidates will get with wins in the first couple states. Bloomberg is going to be in real trouble if someone else comes out strong from Iowa and NH
Bloomberg really needed someone to tell him he needed to make his mind up earlier this year. Without doing that, someone should have at least told him to rush up to Concord the other week. He had a tough climb anyway and has repeatedly shot himself in the foot.
I believe the unconventional ways Bloomberg won in NYC May have spoiled him a bit. He spread money all around local political clubs to lock down support. He ran on unconventional lines to avoid more competitive potential primaries. A presidential doesn’t work like that.
Who ran against him? Look at BdB now. He’s got real unpopularity and hasn’t faced a strong challenger. Someone could have run against Bloomberg with a real shot but most opted to wait for open races. https://twitter.com/jbflint/status/1198650516814741504?s=21 https://twitter.com/JBFlint/status/1198650516814741504
Chris Quinn who, fairly or not, was viewed as the main enabler of the third term ended up losing in large part because of upset over it.
Bloomberg has a real lane and record based case to make, but I think it would have worked much better running as an independent (which would more closely mirror his rise in NYC) or having gotten into this primary on time. As is, I think we’re about to watch *a lot* of money burn
Of course, if recent politics has taught us anything it’s you can’t make predictions — particularly about an unconventional billionaire. Bloomberg has put himself in an unnecessarily bad spot, but will be interesting to see if he can pull off what is essentially a trick shot.
Just imagine a world where Bloomberg, a political maverick with middle class New England roots, was set up to compete in NH. It could be the logical springboard for his campaign. Instead, he’s made it into a liability.
This is a good point. Bloomberg has always been very data driven. He likely has numbers that are emboldening this strategy. Still hard to poll a world that hasn’t happened yet where someone else finished well in Iowa and NH. https://twitter.com/andrewfeinberg/status/1198655587757838342?s=21 https://twitter.com/AndrewFeinberg/status/1198655587757838342
