Given speculation since the summer of the Tories looking at radical tax cuts - HRT to 80k; IHT abolition; slashing corp tax; abolishing stamp duty to £500k - final tax offer (NI threshold increase plus pledge not to raise VAT / NI / IT rates) is fairly modest. Few thoughts:

1/Of all the options that have been on the table, raising the NI threshold is clearly the most sensible in terms of helping lower / middle earners - though putting more money into UC work allowances / taper rate would help those groups more

2/Given modesty of specific tax-cutting pledges, there is a clear political rationale for the triple tax lock (straight from 2015 playbook). But it significantly constrains a CX’s options, and a lot can happen to the econ / public finances over 5 yrs. HMT officials won’t like it

3/Limited tax offer compared to big spending boost shows significance of current budget balance rule. Substantial fiscal loosening on its way but it's not a free-for-all. Cash at SR for NHS/police/schools meant little left for tax cuts. Win for the hawks (relatively speaking)

4/Given Labour will tax take burden to highest in history, the politics of this make sense. The Tories can be the low tax party simply by standing still. A decade of spending restraint was the political weak spot, neutralising that seems the right priority

5/For those Tories wishing tax cuts had been prioritised, I fear they’re in for disappointment for a while. Long-term fiscal pressures from ageing/decarbonisation/rising healthcare costs all point to spending increases rather than tax cuts being the direction medium-term

Final thought - OBR fiscal multipliers are stronger for spending than tax cuts. So growth forecasts at next Budget likely to be relatively better than if tax cuts had been prioritised over spending increases