Thread by @DanRealityBites, A thread about the marginal seats that will decide the next election..1. [...]

A thread about the marginal seats that will decide the next election..

1. Aberdeen South
Tories ahead, but SNP could overtake them
#TacticalVote

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/aberdeen-south

2. Alyn & Deeside
Labour won last time, but Tories looking strong now
#TacticalVote

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/alyn-and-deeside

3. Angus
Conservative seat, SNP within their sights

#TacticalVote

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/angus

4. Argyll & Bute
SNP margin, needs shoring up - Tories second
#TacticalVote

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/argyll-and-bute

5. Ashfield
Tiny Labour majority, Tories running second and ahead in local polling

#TacticalVote

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/ashfield

6. Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock

Tory seat in play if enough Labour and LDems lend their support to the SNP
#TacticalVote

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/ayr-carrick-and-cumnock

7. Barrow & Furness

Labour seat at high risk from Tories unless LDems lend their support
#TacticalVote

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/barrow-and-furness

8. Bassetlaw

Thin majority for Labour and major Tory target - LDem votes could well be decisive

#TacticalVote
https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/bassetlaw

9. Bedford

Tiny Labour majority of 789 last time round, but there were 2,837 Lib Dem votes

Enough to prove decisive if people vote tactically
#TacticalVote
https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/bedford

10. Birmingham - Edgbaston

Tories need to win places like Edgbaston
Labour need to hang on here
Lib Dems need to lend their support
#TacticalVote

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/birmingham-edgbaston

11. Bishop Auckland

Super Labour marginal - they only won by 502 votes in 207

Tories breathing down their necks in 2019

The Lib Dems polled 1,176 votes

#TacticalVote

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/bishop-auckland

12. Blackpool South

A left-behind town that voted Labour last time but could fall to the Tories and their Crazy Brexit Stories...

Stop the Tories by voting Labour here
#TacticalVote

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/blackpool-south

Brecon & Radnorshire

Lib Dem marginal which the Tories need to win back
With the Brexit Party vote collapsing, they're on track to do so unless everyone else votes tactically

#TacticalVote

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/brecon-and-radnorshire

14. Buckingham

The seat of the outgoing Speaker, John Bercow
The Tactical Voting websites suggest Lib Dem but there were 8,574 Green votes last time round

If those Green votes went Lib Dem, it could get interesting
#TacticalVote

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/buckingham

15. Canterbury

Super-slim LABOUR majority of just 187
TORIES are targeting this one big time
Number of LDEM votes last time: 4,561

There will doubtless have been shifts but ALL the tactical voting websites suggest voting LABOUR here
#TacticalVote

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/canterbury

16. Cheadle

A Tory marginal that could swing LDEM if enough LABOUR voters lend them their support

Tory majority over the LDEMs: 4,507
Labour votes last time: 10,417
#TacticalVote

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/cheadle

17. Cheltenham

Another Tory marginal that could swing back to the LDEM sif enough LABOUR voters lend their support

Tory majority over the LDEMs: 2,569
That's less than half the votes that LABOUR got last time: 5,408
#TacticalVote

https://livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/cheltenham

18. Chipping Barnet

A really TINY TORY majority of just 353 over LABOUR last time round

The LDEMs polled 3,012

If just 177 of them switched to LABOUR, it could spell curtains for the Conservatives
#TacticalVote

https://livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/chipping-barnet

19. Colne Valley

Another tiny LAB/CON marginal where LDEMs need to vote tactically to help defeat Boris Johnson and his band of filthy toerags

LAB majority: 915
LDEMs last time: 2,494
#TacticalVote

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/colne-valley

20. Crewe & Nantwich

The TORIES must feel they've got this one in the bag
LABOUR are defending a majority of just 48

Now, more than ever, we need to vote tactically to defeat Johnson, Rees Mogg, Gove, Raab and Patel
#TacticalVote

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/crewe-and-nantwich

21. Dewsbury

Another LAB/CON marginal and a KEY TORY TARGET where voting for the LDEMs will likely gift Boris Johnson a seat

LAB defending a majority of: 3,321
LDEMs last time got: 1,214
#TacticalVote

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/dewsbury

22. Dudley North

LABOUR's majority in Dudley North: 22

TOP TORY TARGET
UKIP voters likely to swing behind Johnson

Only tactical voting will keep it safe
LDEM votes last time: 368
GREEN votes last time: 240
#TacticalVote

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/dudley-north

23. Dumfries & Galloway

A solid Remain constituency that fell for Ruth Davidson

CON share of the vote: 43%
SNP share of the vote: 32%
LAB share of the vote: 21%
LDEM share of the vote: 2%

It's obvious: LAB and LDEM vote SNP

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/dumfries-and-galloway

24. Eastbourne

Tactical voting worked in 2017: the LDEMs took the seat from the TORIES

But they won't keep it without another bout of... you guessed it... TACTICAL VOTING

LDEM majority: 1,609
UKIP vote last time: 6,139
LAB/GREEN combined vote: 5,494

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/eastbourne

25. Gower

Unless LABOUR hang on to seats like Gower...
... we'll get FIVE YEARS OF BORIS JOHNSON'S BREXIT

PC and LDEM voters... you know what your duty is
#TacticalVote

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/gower

26. Great Grimsby

Why do we need tactical voting so badly?
Because the Tories are likely to pick swathes of seats

Great Grimsby has been LABOUR for 74 years
But now trail in polls

Lost seats here and there MUST be clawed by through tactical voting

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/great-grimsby

27. Halifax

LAB won Halifax by just 428 votes in 2015
Tactical voting helped in 2017
We need it again in 2019

Don't be fooled by a seemingly comfortable LAB majority
This is another TORY YORKSHIRE TARGET

Every vote for the LDEMs helps Boris Johnson here
https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/halifax

28. Hastings & Rye

Ultra-close CON/LAB marginal
Amber Rudd's winning margin: 346 votes
The third-placed LDEMs: 1,885 votes
#TacticalVote

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/hastings-and-rye

29. High Peak

Another LAB/CON marginal where every vote for the LDEMs or GREENs makes it more likely to let in the Tories - with their fanatic ideas about WTO farming

LAB majority over CON: 2,322
LDEM votes last time: 2,669

#TacticalVote

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/high-peak

30. Ipswich

A rare LAB GAIN FROM CON last time round
But it'll be tighter this time

LABOUR's majority of just... 836

Last time round the LDEMs got... 1,187
And the GREENS got... 840

Just 2,227 Ipswich voters could decide if Johnson's Tories win here

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/ipswich

31. Keighley

Another TOP TORY TARGET in Yorkshire

Tactical voting in 2017 helped LABOUR eek out a tiny majority of 239 (both LDEM and GREEN share of the vote dipped)

This seat will swing back to TORY unless everyone chips in again
#TacticalVote
https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/keighley

32. Kensington

Hard to call
LAB won by 20 votes in 2017

Local polling in 2019 suggests LDEMs now closest TORY challengers

You can't win 'em all

That doesn't mean we have to give up in ALL THE OTHER CONSTITUENCIES where it's obvious who to vote for

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/kensington

33. Lewes

LDEMs must feel confident of taking some votes from the Tories here

If they could count on some #TacticalVoting from those 6,060 voters who opted for third-placed LABOUR, that could make ALL THE DIFFERENCE
https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/lewes

34. Lincoln

LABOUR took Lincoln from the TORIES in 2017
They will lose it in 2019 without tactical voting

The Tories have hoovered up the UKIP/BXP vote

LAB needs help from:
LDEMs (1,284 votes last time)
GREENs (584)
https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/lincoln

35. Moray

A TORY GAIN from the SNP back in 2017
Needs to be an SNP GAIN from the TORIES in 2019

The only way for that to happen is through #TacticalVoting
CON majority: 4,159
LAB last time: 5,208
LDEM last time: 1,078
https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/moray

36. Newcastle-under-Lyme

HYPER MARGINAL
TORIES only need 30 more votes to win
Last time, the LDEMs polled 1,624 votes
And the GREENs polled 1,246
#TacticalVoting is the way forward

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/newcastle-under-lyme

37. North Cornwall

Last time round, the TORIES got 50% of the vote
LDEM came second
LDEM and LAB combined got 49%

LDEMs are clearly best placed to give the TORIES a run for their money
#VoteTactically

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/north-cornwall

38. North Devon

As in North Cornwall, this is a CON/LDEM marginal

Every vote for LABOUR makes it more likely we'll wake up on Friday 13th December facing FIVE YEARS of Boris Johnson

CON majority of 4,332 is way less than the 7,063 votes LAB won in 2017
https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/north-devon

39. Ochil & South Perthshire

Voters here face a choice:
(A) Five years of Alexander Boris De Pfeffel Johnson; or
(B) Voting tactically for the SNP

3,359 = size of the TORY majority over the SNP
10,847 = number of votes third-placed LABOUR won

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/ochil-and-south-perthshire

40. Penistone & Stocksbridge

TOP TORY TARGET
LAB's majority just 1,322

If Brexit Party supporters vote tactically it's a TORY GAIN FROM LAB on election night

Only #TacticalVoting by LDEM voters (2,042 votes last time) can stop that from happening

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/penistone-and-stocksbridge

41. Peterborough

The Jun-19 by election showed the TORIES and BXP what happened if their vote split

LABOUR won, thanks to tactical voting. But the TORIES are highly likely to regain the seat.

That's why every vote in a battleground constituency is VITAL
https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/peterborough

42. Portsmouth South

This is the kind of seat that LABOUR can't afford to lose
With the TORIES pressing hard, it's vital that LDEM supporters lend LABOUR a #TacticalVoting hand

Those 7,699 LDEM votes could be vital in keeping out Johnson's TORY VANDALS

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/portsmouth-south

43. Pudsey

Pudsey voted Remain but has a TORY MP because the pro-Remain vote was split between LAB and LDEM

Those 1,761 LDEM voters could easily overturn the TORIES' majority of just 331 votes

We just need to get everyone to #VoteTactically
https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/pudsey

44. Richmond Park

Zac Goldsmith is TOAST

At least he will be if enough LABOUR supporters turn out for the LDEMs in 2019

The TORY majority of the LDEMs is a microscopic 45 votes

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/richmond-park

45. Scunthorpe

Between them, the LDEMs and the GREENs could easily pick up 1,000 votes

If they do, it could be bad news for LABOUR - this is another KEY TORY TARGET and if the TORIES win here, they've got FIVE MORE YEARS of power in the bag

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/scunthorpe

46. Swindon South

Another CON/LAB marginal where LDEM voters could make all the difference...

TORY majority in 2017: 2,464
LDEM votes last time: 2,079

If you want to clip Boris Johnson's wings, you can't let him keep hold of seats like Swindon South

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/swindon-south

47. Southampton Itchen

ULTRA-MARGINAL LAB/CON seat where LDEM voters will determine the outcome

LAB majority in 2017: 31
LDEM votes last time: 1,421

#VoteTactically or watch Johnson's Tories sweep to power for five long years

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/southampton-itchen

48. St Ives

A fantastic opportunity for the LDEMs to spring from a solid second place to oust the TORIES

CON majority over LDEMs: 312
LAB votes last time round: 7,298

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/st-ives

49. Stirling

Stirling voted 68% Remain but suffers a TORY MP because the progressive vote was split between the SNP/LABOUR

Help right that wrong by a #TacticalVote for the SNP on 12th December

CON majority: 148
WASTED 3rd placed LAB votes: 10,902
https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/stirling

50. Stroud

Stroud regularly swings back and forth between LAB and TORY

It'll return to TORY in 2019 unless the LDEMs lend LABOUR some of their support

LAB majority last time: 687
LDEM votes in 2017: 2,053

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/stroud

51. Wells

This could just about be in play for the LDEMs if Labour voters voted tactically

CON majority over LDEMs in 2017: 7,582
Votes cast for 3rd-placed LABOUR: 7,129

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/well

52. Winchester

Don't underestimate towns like Winchester
EX-TORIES are moving to the LDEMs out of disgust with Boris Johnson

But the LDEMs won't with massive help from the 6,006 people who voted LABOUR last time round

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/winchester

53. Wrexham

If LAB can't keep hold of Wrexham, we're looking at FIVE LONG YEARS of Boris Johnson

LABOUR is defending a majority of just 1,832
With the BREXIT PARTY voters turning to the TORIES, LABOUR need tactical support

GE 2017:
PC: 1,753
LDEM: 865

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/wrexham

54. Some additions...

St Albans voted strongly to Remain (62%)

Its TORY MP would be TOAST if supporters of third-placed LABOUR voted tactically for the LDEM candidate

TORY majority in 2017: 6,109
Votes for third-placed LAB in 2017: 13,137

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/st-albans

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