And now the last morning for the Manama Dialogue (first panel this morning was off the record, on grey zone conflict). We have @KoriSchake, @emile_hokayem, John Raine, Hasan Alhasan, and Bastien Giegerich. Thread on the key points. #IISSMD19

My thread on yesterday afternoon's two panels: https://twitter.com/thomasjuneau/status/1198205283115376641

And on yesterday morning: https://twitter.com/thomasjuneau/status/1198115517728542720

First up, John Raine, with the best job title, IISS fellow for geopolitical due diligence. Starts by contrasting the depth of internationalization of the Gulf with the desire for local solutions to the region's problems. #IISSMD19

Raine also sees a real willingness to confront the wide variety of asymmetric threats to the stability of the state in the region.

Next up, Alhasan. Refers first to the importance of securing stable markets for the Gulf states in the context of growing ties to East Asia. East Asian states are increasingly interested in investing in the technological sector in Gulf states. There are many challenges.

First, managing regulatory and political risks - not easy. That is why the bulk of new investments will be state-led. Next challenge will be to translate trade gains in security gains - which will be very difficult. #IISSMD19

Next up, @emile_hokayem. Highlights first the risk of being complacent about the risk of destabilization as a result of large scale protests - Sudan, Algeria, Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, Iran all had large protests just in the last few months.

Second, battlefield results dictate outcomes much more than political processes - see Syria, Yemen. Force matters. Third, international tensions can exacerbate local problems - see how US-Iran tensions shape internal developments in Iraq or Lebanon. #IISSMD19

So we will still need a conflict and stabilization panel at next year's Manama Dialogue, and probably beyond.

Finally, Giegerich. 3 dimensions spell trouble for NATO. One, an emerging values gap among some allies (see the Germany-Turkey discussion yesterday). Two, how NATO allies can invigorate the commitment of Article 5 on collective defence.

Three, how to deliver on the Alliance's readiness and capability commitments. Those who want to do things are necessarily the ones able to do them. Also, stabilization means different things for different allies, notably on how they rank tools the alliance can use. #IISSMD19

@KoriSchake saw two themes during the dialogue: the anxiety about ebbing US interest and engagement, which she also saw at the IISS Shangri-La event. Also, the idea that countries in the region will be forced into trade-offs between their prosperity & security agendas. #IISSMD19

@emile_hokayem: the perception of US retrenchment is pervasive in the region. Obama sounded good in intellectualizing the argument, but it was badly received. Trump is making the gut argument now. #IISSMD19

Perhaps the region needs less US, @emile_hokayem adds, but it would need to be done in an ordered way, as part of a regional framework, and that is not what is happening now. #IISSMD19

Cynicism is not a good compass to operate in the region. Yes, the Middle East is exhausting and there is a sense it is hopeless and that conflict can only be managed. That will not fix anything. It's difficult but @emile_hokayem calls for a voluntarist approach, not containment.

@KoriSchake builds on this, and supports the Jordanian foreign minister's call yesterday for more investment in regional institutions and in the region's ability to build its own solutions. #IISSMD19

ICRC representative makes a good point in the Q&A: we have not talked about how the massive humanitarian crisis afflicting the region will substantially transform the region. How to incorporate that in political programs?

Why is it so difficult to build regional alliances? @KoriSchake - who knows a thing or 2 about alliances - sees 3 reasons: trust (not enough), institutionalization (see how routine engagements in NATO lead to transparency, predictability...

...institutions are under-institutionalized in the region), and values (to make US involvement more stable & deeper in the region, there would have to be the crafting of a common narrative based on values.) #IISSMD19

@FHeisbourg asks, how much all of our discussion is Trump-dependent? Will things get back to how they were before after Trump? Key question, which was underlying to many of the debates here since Friday.

Great intervention in the Q&A: someone strongly suggests that the Dialogue would benefit from the greatest diversity of perspectives possible. So it would be essential to have the Iranian perspective (absent here) represented, as well as the Russian and Israeli ones. #IISSMD19

If the Soviet Union exported Ladas to the Gulf 40 years ago with no air conditioning but very good heating, it's no surprise it collapsed. (indirect but very relevant point by a delegate from India). #IISSMD19 #unexpectedwisdom

Why are we all talking about Iran? IN response to a question, Raine says the Iranians fight "inside our guard". This is not an adversary with which anyone is formally fighting a war, neither is it seeking to annex territory. It is posing a deep challenge, that will not stop.

Raine finishes by calling for good governance, state-building, and repeats Anwar Gargash's plea yesterday for a stronger Arab moderate core.

How much is Trump-dependent? In answer to this earlier question @FHeisbourg, @emile_hokayem says most of his interlocutors in the region understand that structural drivers shape US retrenchment, and that the rhetoric change dates back to Obama. #IISSMD19

On this, @KoriSchake adds that the genius of US power after 1945: we constructed an international order that was predictable and beneficial to both us and to others, so there was voluntary compliance. What we see now: a post-Iraq war weariness in solving problems we helped create

Adds that now the middle powers that benefitted from this order are working hard (and actually names Canada, @StephanieCarvin - also France, etc) to save this order.

Key question: will the US want to return to the status quo ante-Trump? We will see after 2020. If Trump is reelected, the affirmation of his policies by the American population will have far-reaching consequences that will make it very difficult to turn back the clock. #IISSMD19

On this, John Chipman is now closing the 2019 Manama Dialogue. If 6 people actually read my four long threads since Friday night, well done... I will bring them together in one (short, I promise) thread, with a few thoughts, later.