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Right so today we're gonna look at 8 constituencies that make up the city of Leeds (though one of them has a bit of Wakefield in it).
Starting with the 4 safe Labour ones:
Leeds Central
Leeds East
Leeds North East
Leeds West
(1/18)
Starting with the 4 safe Labour ones:
Leeds Central
Leeds East
Leeds North East
Leeds West
(1/18)
The 4 seats are almost entirely urban and cover the majority of the sprawl around Leeds. Bar North East, they have all been Labour held since the 80's and save a few blips have had Labour representation since 1945. Solid red territory here.
(2/18)
(2/18)
Looking at the results from last time it would take a combination of a Labour collapse and an amazing Tory campaign to unseat any of the MPs here. This of course includes Hillary Benn so would be headline if it came to pass.
(3/18)
(3/18)
It'd be especially hard for that to happen in North East, as since the close of nominations the Conservative candidate has been suspended for antisemitism. A healthy number of candidates everywhere.
(4/18)
(4/18)
The ward boundaries were changed recently and don't quite fit the constituency boundaries now, as you can see, very red area here. And thus:
Prediction: Labour HOLD x4.
(5/18)
Prediction: Labour HOLD x4.
(5/18)
Now onto Elmet & Rothwell, the safest seat for the Conservatives in Leeds and in fact all of West Yorkshire.
The seat covers the town of Rothwell and a scattering of other small towns and villages to the east of Leeds including Garforth, Kippax and Wetherby.
(6/18)
The seat covers the town of Rothwell and a scattering of other small towns and villages to the east of Leeds including Garforth, Kippax and Wetherby.
(6/18)
It's an area I know well, I deliver shopping to the majority of the seat, can't say I know much of the political leanings from that though some of the northern villages have very nice houses... Anyway here's last time's results:
(7/18)
(7/18)
The candidate list is almost identical to last time (damn Greens).
With the polls the way they are, it's unlikely to be the scene of a Labour gain. The Lib Dems may gain enough votes to keep their deposit, but I feel this will likely be an extended majority for the Tories.
(8/18)
With the polls the way they are, it's unlikely to be the scene of a Labour gain. The Lib Dems may gain enough votes to keep their deposit, but I feel this will likely be an extended majority for the Tories.
(8/18)
As I said before, quite a blue area here, if the Labour vote is gonna come from anywhere though it'd be from the South. With all that said:
Prediction: Conservative HOLD.
(9/18)
Prediction: Conservative HOLD.
(9/18)
Now onto two constituencies that were so close but no cigar for Labour last time: Pudsey and Morley & Outwood.
Pudsey covers its namesake along with the suburb of Horsforth and other villages up to Guisley.
Morely & Outwood is more urban and covers both its namesakes.
(10/18)
Pudsey covers its namesake along with the suburb of Horsforth and other villages up to Guisley.
Morely & Outwood is more urban and covers both its namesakes.
(10/18)
Last time out they were very close between Labour and the Tories, with Labour nearly gaining Pudsey and the Tories just extending their majority in M&O.
If Labour mount a strong local campaign these two seats could easily fall their way, though it has to be said that...
(11/18)
If Labour mount a strong local campaign these two seats could easily fall their way, though it has to be said that...
(11/18)
...it seems unlikely at this moment in time. The potential voting splits would also be mostly benefiting the Tories here, with the same 5 parties standing in both seats here.
But you never know the whole story from national polls...
(12/18)
But you never know the whole story from national polls...
(12/18)
...as this map shows.
Nevertheless I can't see Labour breaking through here, and the Conservatives may find themselves with a decent majority here after Dec 12th. The Lib Dems will again be hoping to keep their deposit here.
Prediction: Conservative HOLD x2.
(13/18)
Nevertheless I can't see Labour breaking through here, and the Conservatives may find themselves with a decent majority here after Dec 12th. The Lib Dems will again be hoping to keep their deposit here.
Prediction: Conservative HOLD x2.
(13/18)
Right finally the seat that might actually change: Leeds North West, the only seat in West Yorkshire where the Lib Dems stand a chance.
The seat is a combination of some Leeds suburbs such as Headingley and Burley with some rural villages, Otley and Yeadon.
(14/18)
The seat is a combination of some Leeds suburbs such as Headingley and Burley with some rural villages, Otley and Yeadon.
(14/18)
The latter two towns have a very strong Lib Dem presence locally and would have fuelled a lot of their former vote. Nonetheless in the late Labour surge at the last GE they lost the seat to the reds. Not out of the range for a recovery though...
(15/18)
(15/18)
The question is of course: Will ex LD voters now vote Con for Brexit and where would ex Labour voters go? The Brexit Party perhaps? That would definitely help the Lib Dems but it's another case of votes flying everywhere here.
(16/18)
(16/18)
The local picture doesn't bring too much clarity, we could see sort of a 3 way split here with either of Con, Lab or LDs pipping it here. Personally my gut says that the Lib Dems will just make it back here (the bookies agree, make of that what you will), but I could...
(17/18)
(17/18)
...be horribly wrong and they could collapse. Oh well, this is definitely one to watch.
Prediction: Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour.
Thanks for reading, if there's any comments or things I've missed just throw them here for all to see.
(18/18)
Prediction: Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour.
Thanks for reading, if there's any comments or things I've missed just throw them here for all to see.
(18/18)
