Thread.

1- @FiveThirtyEight is considered by many the gold standard of polling analyses.

So I surfed some of their stuff. Considering that THE WALLS ARE CLOSING IN! on Trump, the results were surprising.

2- Trump's approval is very steady & trending slightly up most recently. How can that be, after nonstop bashing from Schiff-Show?

Note the Emerson poll with Trump at +1 is rated a very high "A-".

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/

3- From the same 538 page, interesting comparison with past presidents. Trump is "Steady Eddie" compared to his predecessors. If Trump manages to not do something dumb like get entangled in a new war, he'll end in 2025 well ahead of many past presidents.

4- Now look at impeachment. Notice in particular that even before the Mueller report came out, ~37% of the country wanted Trump impeached. That's the rabid D base, basically. So Operation Ukraine moved the dial less than 10 pts.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/impeachment-polls/

5- Now look at the trend lines. D's went way up & held. R's have never bought in & still aren't. Most notable is I's. After ticking up early in Operation Ukraine, they're trending back down to where they were.

Also note the "A-" Emerson poll at -15 for I's. Huge.

6- More on the Emerson poll here.. https://twitter.com/ITGuy1959/status/1197574362393726976

7- I can't imagine Week 2 of the Schiff-Show moved the dial. As Americans digest goofball Gordon Sondland, they'll realize that - like the other "witnesses" - he spent hours talking about what he presumed or inferred, not what he heard or saw.

8- Pelosi must be seeing the same with internal polls.

Now, on top of that, we have a breaking story about our own FBI fabricating evidence to get a warrant to spy on Trump.

This seems more nefarious than Trump's phone call..

More here (thread) https://twitter.com/ITGuy1959/status/1197994190451417090

9- I would bet that post-Thanksgiving the polls on impeachment will further erode, Trump approval will stay steady or go up. All this just in time for the OIG report on Dec 9th, with a public hearing on Dec 11th.

Pelosi is in a bind.

/end