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i wonder what the production cost is on a line of ASICs
curious what the margins are for new machines
ASIC sellers claim to adjust prices to current bitcoin prices but surely thereâs a limit there
when you think about it, a good % of current âminer rewardsâ are repayment of the equipment cost
so the total ânew supplyâ value capture is actually flowing pre-emptively to chinese ASIC vendors/makers
I wouldnât be surprised if a decent chunk of miners never break even on equipment costs either; the difficulty spike is a real depreciator
ive heard rumors that new manufacturers hook up the miners and run them for a bit before shipping them out. not that this is necessarily provable but itâs incredibly smart
a new, more efficient miner is eorth the most before the additional hashrate is priced into the difficulty
*worth
i mean i get that it takes a few months to build a new machine but the 2-3mo deposit setup most ASIC manufacturers use is 
you send them money in advance and they ship out machines in a batch a few months later
couple this with the fact that hydro energy is supposedly free for certain times of the year â I should really look to see where this lines up with ASIC production schedules
anyway, thatâs a huge value capture by equipment makers. the pre-priced in earnings before shipment plus an âestimated 3moâ return on the machine; which inevitably is way longer because the hashrate increase isnât calculated into that
net net, I wouldnât be surprised if some huge % of block value is actually captured by the ASIC industry
anyway, buying 2nd hand machines is probably where itâs at but also yikes that difficulty spike
at some point the ASIC performance curve will level out, ideally youâd be the first buyer of a near-top machine. but even then your expected payback is gonna decay every time a new machine comes online
the real place to be is an ASIC maker, skimming the first un-allocated weeks of usage and then selling it for a premium of the next X months estimated production
so why do people buy ASICs and get into mining at all?? eh eventually the miner will go a little bit profitable, maybe and free cashflow for no work or maintenance costs is verrrrry sexy
is bitcoin mining fucked? i mean yeah if you dont have the resources to either extremely cheap power or early access to top of the line machines .... i get that making those payback spreadsheets is fun
the real move would be to figure put the ASIC performance limit and then buy a bunch of 2nd hand machines at discount during a sell off
or become a shovel maker yourself
s/o to the person at my local meetup trying to offload some GPUs tho. respect.
