Commons voted for this election 25 days ago. 19 days to polling day. So a fair way to go, but it will go quickly now. What is state of GE19?

Personal take: so far pretty much to plan for Boris Johnson - almost as well as he could have hoped - but still a danger for him in that

Biggest gain for PM

Nigel Farage/ Brexit Party prominent in pre-campaign positioning & skirmishes, but will now fade heavily from view. Standing down in 300+ seats a big signal elsewhere.

NB, fading Brexit party puts Cons back near 2017 starting point (not an advance on 2017)

Farage didn't pull out where Cons most wanted (Lab seats).

But withdrawal is worth net 3% to Cons in many C/LD marginals. could prove decisive in 6-12+ cases

The broader "signal" of permission to vote for the PM has overshadowed the Bxp clean break critique of the Brexit deal.

Second big development is LibDems struggling. A striking factor of 2019 has been the coincidental "polarisation symbiosis" of the LibDems and Brexit Party rising together, maybe now fading together. The "polarisation unwind" from a Euro to a General election?

LibDems stay much more in GE19 than Brexit Party for 3 reasons
- higher share
- status/having MPs
- geography matters: they have targets. Unlike Bxp, LDs are clear tactical choice of one tribe in some seats.

But aspiration to go past Lab into 2nd, transform map look unlikely now

Related: it's true that voters say that Brexit id stronger than party identification, but discourse has overstated this/taken it too much at face value. Significant (minority) slices of vote (esp Tory Remain, also SNP Leave, Lab Leave & even LibDem Leave) not prioritising Brexit

This LibDem wobble is a mixed blessing for the PM
* May help him in his "hamster wheel election", of needing to contain losses (to SNP & LDs) gobbling up his initial gains Vs Labour
* But was hoping for LD national surge in Lab seats to make Remain vote less efficient in FPTP

Early focus on Tory/Brexit Party (which consolidates the 2017 vote) has seen less focus on Johnson improving Tory Leave share on 2017, winning some Corbyn 2017 voters. Current polls may imply about 1.5m Lab2017 Leavers desert and 1.5 million stay Labour https://twitter.com/james_bowley/status/1196342556969381888?s=19

Though unusually rare, there is some direct vote switching between major parties: 1/10 of Lab2017 (1.25m) to Cons and 1/50 of Con2017 to Labour (250k) in this analysis of aggregated polls from @james_bowley at start of the week https://twitter.com/james_bowley/status/1196341555176628229?s=19

Geography is everything in this election. This Survation Grimsby poll shows a 9% Lab-Con swing with significant Labour losses to Brexit Party. Whether this pattern repeated elsewhere or holds unknown but this is not one of the easier Cons targets in Lab Leave seats

Tory Remain used to be about 3/10 Remainers (about 4.5m-5m in 2015-16). Boris Johnson is holding 1/6 Remainers (maybe 2.5m-3m) while up to a million Theresa May 2017 voters (6% of all Cons, 1/5 Tory2017 Remainers) intend to vote LibDem this time

So a Brexit polarisation dynamic too: a million+ Labour voters to the Cons; up to a million Cons votes to LibDems. Boris Johnson may be winning about 3% of the electorate from Labour over Brexit, maybe losing up to 3% of the electorate to the LDs over Brexit. Where will matter.

It's going well for Boris Johnson. The main risk for him in the last 3 weeks now comes from how voters respond to how this election is going well for Boris Johnson. Their choices have become clearer as a result of these early campaign skirmishes. It's a Boris mandate/stop him GE

Johnson looks well placed to secure 42% of the vote. (Maybe 42-45%)

Whatever their many differences, Labour and the Liberal Democrats are now symbiotic rivals. Their voters will either work out how to block/limit a Cons majority (as in 2017) or both will fail on Gvt & Brexit

If polls begin to close up in the final days, it will help the Cons reinforce their message to key target voters (C/Lab Brexit voters; C Remain/LD voters). If Cons look like clear favourites, with a possible landslide, that could help the opposition parties close the gap

A hypothetical election result along these lines could be safe for Boris Johnson (majority 30++) or put him into the danger zone of a hung parliament. It would all depend on the geography of the vote with a 6-8 point lead.

Cons 42-44
Lab 34-37
LDs 12-15
SNP 5
brexit 3
Greens 2

The media and voters might respond very differently to polls that are 43-33 to polls that are 41-36 in the final week, but larger leads could prove more dangerous to the Conservatives than smaller ones. (this dynamic is complicated by postal votes which may rise in a December GE)

Because of Cons lead, the LD wobble, and the Brexit frame for many voters, it now looks to me like the Labour party ought to be able to climb towards 35% by Dec 12th. I think they probably have a 2019 ceiling at 37% or a bit below.

Premise
* Now irrational for (strong) Remainers *who prioritise Brexit* to not support Labour/LDs where strategically best placed.
* That does not apply to Pro-Remain voters who prioritise not-Corbyn or prioritise not-LibDems (for whatever reasons) over block Johnson, or Brexit

This 2019 election - like 2017 and 2016 and 2015 - is big blow to the old adage that campaigns don't matter much

Campaigns do really matter in these types of volatile cross-pressured times. They can do much to clarify the actual choices voters face & make in an imperfect world.

Conservatives on 47% in the Opinium poll reinforces this: a successful campaign for the Conservatives to date, unless it generates a dramatic counter-mobilisation to close that gap; if Cons succeed with Tory Remain *and* Brexit voters, makes it diffcult https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1198306806746906625