1/ Some nos. behind the much feared widening of CCC spreads: i) The widening is of CCC AND lower rated bonds, not just CCCs; ii) The total amt outstanding of CCC or worse bonds is $89b (excludes issues w/ less than $100M outstanding); $SPY $QQQ $IWM

2/ Of $89b outstanding, $41b r owed by: $YPF $4.6b, Vine Oil & Gas $500M, $UNT $650M, $UPL $580M, $RIG $2.2b, Rio Energy $600M, Offshore Drilling Holdgs $950M, $MDR $1.3b, $MNK $3b, $I $9b, $FTR $10.1b, $FGP $500M, $DNR $250M, $CRC $340M, $CYH $2.6b, $DCEL $4.2b
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3/ By industry, the $41b break out as follows: Energy $12.5b, Telecom $23.2b, Hospital $2.6b, opioid/scam (a/k/a $MNK) $3b. Some thoughts: i) bad E&P cos been going bankrupt for 3 yrs & will be 4 many more - it's not a canary, it's a well known stinking cadaver $SPY $QQQ $IWM

4/ ii) Highly levered second tier telecoms exist to go bankrupt - that expectation is built into the markets when those cos. begin to exist; iii) $MNK is a scam.
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5/ So, if any or all of the CCC or worse debt defaults, probably no one will care, except for distressed funds that will finally have something to do. Again, these are not "canaries" they are "walking dead" for all to see. $SPY $QQQ $IWM ...

6/ IMHO a "canary" will look like a "pretty, chirpy co." that no one expects to run into refi troubles ( $KHC for example?) and next thing u know they gotta pay out the nose. Then it's time to get scared. $SPY $QQQ $IWM