THREAD: We might end up with a Tory MP in Bath because of Lib Dem hubris, and they have form on this. What they’re doing now in Bath and North East Somerset is exactly what they did in Oxford in 2010, but worse. 1/11

People remember 2010 as being a good year for the Lib Dems, but it actually wasn’t. Obviously they had Cleggmania and ended up in government, but they lost seats. They came out of that election with fewer seats than in 2005. 2/11

One seat that they lost was Oxford West and Abingdon, where Evan Harris went into the election with a majority of nearly 8000, having been the MP there since 1997 (coincidentally, like Bath, it had been won from a Tory called Patten) 3/11

Because there had been some good polls and people were suddenly interested in the Lib Dems in a way that they hadn’t been before, they diverted resources to nearby seats like Oxford East. Lib Dems were second there to Labour, looking to overturn a small majority 4/11

In the end, they lost both seats, and Oxford West ended up going back to the Tories. They were left without an MP in Oxford for 7 years and now they’ve got an MP back there, that majority has gone from nearly 8000 in 2005 to just over 800 in 2017. 5/11

But what they’re doing in Bath and North East Somerset is much worse than that. Firstly, the majority that they’re trying to hold in Bath is smaller (less than 6000) than the seat they lost in Oxford in 2010. 6/11

More importantly, though, is that they have absolutely zero chance of winning North East Somerset and *they know it*. Their best ever result in that constituency still had them in third place, but they’re pouring all their resources in there. 7/11

Despite Labour having a real shot of winning there, they are intent on trying to convince people that only they can win. Why? Not because they want to get rid of Rees-Mogg this year, but because when Rees-Mogg is finally ousted in the future they want to be the ones to do it 8/11

So their real goal in this election is to come second in North East Somerset. All their dodgy bar charts, all the people they’re sending out on the doorsteps, the tens of thousands they’re pouring into leaflets are all to stop Labour winning there 9/11

They should look at what happened in Oxford in 2010 and realise that what they think is a ‘safe seat’ isn’t that safe if they end up putting all their resources elsewhere. 10/11

If their strategy works, they might come second in North East Somerset, but they might also come second in Bath. Personally, I’d rather see the back of Rees-Mogg and that’s why I’m backing @MarkHubandNES 11/11