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Contrarian Take: We already know what @AmbJohnBolton is likely to say. Other witnesses who have already come forward are more compelling than he will be. Of course it would be a big media event, but substantively, Hill, Vindman, Sondland, Holmes are stronger witnesses. https://twitter.com/AmbJohnBolton/status/1197900337690107904
@AmbJohnBolton will admit that he knew & approved of Sondland's role as @realdonaldtrump's special political envoy to get the political dirt Trump wanted from UKR sources vs @joebiden. He approved the 3 amigos team to manage the political demands & keep the policy on track.
@AmbJohnBolton will say that, while unusual, it was a concession to Trump to keep the overall policy goals re: UKR on track. He'll say it was relatively harmless & fair game in politics b/c while he accepts Russia interfered in '16, it wasn't decisive.Trump won on his own merits.
However, @AmbJohnBolton, will say, 'things got out of hand' b/c of @rudygiuliani who undermined the relationship with UKR and was focused on getting the elected UKR gov't involved in the scheme and not limit it to lesser players like current or former corrupt UKR prosecutors.
That was the political 'hand grenade' b/c Rudy was damaging the relationship w/Zelensky and helping Russia. Sondland, too, got out of control as he took further direction from @MickMulvaneyOMB. @AmbJohnBolton will say he tried to intervene w/Volker, Sondland but to of no avail.
@AmbJohnBolton will also talk about the 7/25 call and his sense of alarm. He might volunteer that there was a potential legal issue re: the quid pro quo which is why he requested people to inform the lawyers. He'll throw WH Counsel's office under the bus for ar lack of follow-up.
@AmbJohnBolton will then also confirm that the hold up of the military aid was a big concern of his starting in August and he tried to persuade others to push it through, including trying to persuade Trump in a direct one v one meeting. Having failed, he chose to resign.
That testimony, while certainly interesting, doesn't really add much to what others have said. It will provide a more complete account, and will also confirm that the political track was approved by key principals and managed by Trump and Rudy. We know this already.
For @AmbJohnBolton to make his testimony more compelling, he'll have to go after @realdonaldtrump hard as unfit, unfocused, and easily influenced by Russian propaganda (building on what Fiona Hill said).
@AmbJohnBolton will have to argue that the Russian active measures Trump is consumed by have distorted US foreign policy and are bad for the country. He should then call on @GOP Senators to consider their responsibilities and act accordingly.
That would make his testimony historic. I don't expect it, however, b/c he's a Republican at the end of the day. Such testimony probably wouldn't force @GOP to push Trump out, but it will severely weaken him as he can't use a national security/CiC argument vs his Dem opponent.
