Yes, I think any US effort to effectively counter China is doomed as long as Trump is running the show. This isn’t some bizarre obsession, it’s a considered view that I’m willing and happy to rationally defend.

First, Trump’s belligerent, erratic MO with everyone makes it very difficult to turn any US dispute with China into more than a purely bilateral clash. Not only does he alienate potential allies, they don’t trust us to hold firm.

This bizarre attempt to shake down South Korea, as if getting paid was our main priority, is just the latest example of this. Pointless trade disputes with Japan, India, Vietnam, and South Korea, not to mention quitting TPP, are yet more.

Second, his reduction of US national interests and vision to “what’s in it for me?” and “I wuz robbed” undermines a key element of US power over the years: the notion of a benign, not malignant, hegemon.

The US condemns China over Xinjiang, but isn’t willing to accept a single refugee. Nor is it willing to press any Muslim partner to take a stand on the issue. It’s just a rhetorical bargaining chip, like poor Otto Warmbier was with North Korea.

Hong Kong protesters look to the US for inspiration and moral support. Though admittedly there is only so much we can do, Trump promises Xi to stay silent for a trade deal. Our ideals and reputation are a useful bargaining chip, nothing more.

When Carrie Lam calls critics and reporters “enemies of the people”, what can the US say? Our President has said the exact same words.

Trump’s entire attitude towards trade validates China’s own mercantilist approach as smart and effective - winning - instead of dangerously wrong-headed. Why then would they want to stop winning? You’ve just told them they were right all along.

His entire trade strategy is based on the wrong assumption that chronic trade imbalances arose from “bad deals” that ripped off the US, instead of deep structural imbalances that threaten surplus and deficit nations alike. Oblivious of the real problem, he pursues fake solutions.

No wonder that, despite tariffs and more tariffs, the US trade deficit has widened by almost 1/3 since Trump was elected. His own fiscal policies (a deficit-funded tax cut) virtually ensures this would happen.

Is it good that the US is paying more attention to tech and IP threats from China? Recently putting more physical muscle and assertiveness behind our position in the South China Sea? Yes.

But without a coherent strategy and an attractive vision to offer others, none of this will matter, because the US will find itself increasingly isolated - not because people like or have confidence in China, but because they will have no confidence in us.

This isn’t about “playing nice” with China. It’s about smartly picking our battles (and positioning ourselves beforehand), and not thinking that just throwing our weight around will be enough.