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I have to say that I'm fascinated by the supposed sadness associated with the departure of Virgin Trains... I dare say any company would have achieved what they did, given a massive route upgrade and state-bankrolled rolling stock. Oh, and the paring down of track access charges.
"Fascination" and "disagree with" are very much not the same thing.
Though can someone bring up the growth figures for VTWC and GNER over the first franchise duration? Out of interest...
Though can someone bring up the growth figures for VTWC and GNER over the first franchise duration? Out of interest...
This is also not remotely a reflection on the tireless staff who are treading into the unknown with a new operator... But those staff will be as dedicated under the new WCP brand as they were under the VT brand.
If you're interested, here are the passenger growth figures for the InterCity West Coast ("VTWC" in red) and InterCity East Coast ("LNER" in white) franchises since 2012... Overall GB passenger growth is marked in grey.
I'm prodding @railandroad for the pre-2011 figures.
I'm prodding @railandroad for the pre-2011 figures.
Remember that the ICEC franchise was "Virgin Trains East Coast" from 2015 to 2018, and state-run "East Coast Railway Company" from 2009, even though I've shown it as "LNER" on that graph.
Here are the updated graphs, with colours on the ICEC franchise trendline to show who was running it at the time:
From these, it is clear that VT has exceeded the various ICEC franchise holders since 2013, with double the growth in 2014. However, when the Virgin brand appeared on the East Coast, it failed to create a significant leap in growth figures, certainly compared to the West Coast.
There's more going on here, of course, but for me this does undermine the suggestion that the VT brand is behind the growth on the ICWC franchise.
I hypothesise that the pre-2012 figures will confirm this by indicating significant constrained demand through low growth figures.
I hypothesise that the pre-2012 figures will confirm this by indicating significant constrained demand through low growth figures.
Right - I've got hold of all data for both the ICEC and ICWC franchises (thanks to the @railandroad team)...
The first graph shows quarterly total growth from 1995 Q1.
The second graph shows relative growth year on year.
I've coloured trendlines with their operators.
The first graph shows quarterly total growth from 1995 Q1. The second graph shows relative growth year on year. I've coloured trendlines with their operators.
First thing that strikes me - Hatfield.
The impact on growth of the resulting nationwide speed restrictions took FOUR YEARS to recover from. https://twitter.com/GarethDennis/status/1198209926226677760
The impact on growth of the resulting nationwide speed restrictions took FOUR YEARS to recover from. https://twitter.com/GarethDennis/status/1198209926226677760
Next interesting observation - WCRM.
You can clearly see how growth on the ICWC franchise was further impacted by the West Coast route modernisation. https://twitter.com/GarethDennis/status/1198209926226677760
You can clearly see how growth on the ICWC franchise was further impacted by the West Coast route modernisation. https://twitter.com/GarethDennis/status/1198209926226677760
All in all - growth, growth, growth.
In absolute terms, ICWC is now growing faster than all other LDHSS franchises combined. https://twitter.com/GarethDennis/status/1198209926226677760
In absolute terms, ICWC is now growing faster than all other LDHSS franchises combined. https://twitter.com/GarethDennis/status/1198209926226677760
In the east - steady as she goes.
In absolute terms, ICEC is growing more slowly than total journeys across the GB network. This might well be due to constrained capacity, though... The ECML hasn't benefited from a major route upgrade like the WCML has. https://twitter.com/GarethDennis/status/1198209926226677760
In absolute terms, ICEC is growing more slowly than total journeys across the GB network. This might well be due to constrained capacity, though... The ECML hasn't benefited from a major route upgrade like the WCML has. https://twitter.com/GarethDennis/status/1198209926226677760
And the crucial point - the (lack of) Virgin effect.
Even absolute growth on the ICWC franchise only exceeded the ICEC franchise once the new rolling stock and timetable were in place. Growth has been reducing ever since then, too. https://twitter.com/GarethDennis/status/1198209926226677760
Even absolute growth on the ICWC franchise only exceeded the ICEC franchise once the new rolling stock and timetable were in place. Growth has been reducing ever since then, too. https://twitter.com/GarethDennis/status/1198209926226677760
