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George Packer, in his brilliant “Our Man” about Richard Holbrook, cites a ‘68 @TheAtlantic essay by a former assistant who worked for years on Vietnam and described why officials so often refuse to speak up or throw red flags when they know they should. Seems very relevant today:
Here is the entire essay, which is worth reading. The effectiveness trap, banishment of expertise, impugning the reputations of those who tell the truth, and the resultant chilling effect amongst serving officials, all read like modern-day lessons. https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1968/04/how-could-vietnam-happen-an-autopsy/306462/
The predictable result is a shambolic foreign policy and weakening of our country. In the last week alone, five examples, across two theaters:
1. State/DOD IGs confirm what we already know: that Trump’s green light to Erdogan and abrupt withdrawal from Syria has been a total disaster that’s only getting worse, benefitting ISIS, Iran, and Russia. https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/19/politics/pentagon-report-syria-turkey-ceasefire/index.html
2. Trump’s own national security strategy was geared towards “great power competition,” yet we’re shaking down and alienating our closest Asia-Pacific allies, our main comparative advantage against China. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia-pacific/us-breaks-off-talks-with-south-korea-over-costs-of-military-alliance/2019/11/19/949773d8-0a9b-11ea-8054-289aef6e38a3_story.html
3. Canceled military exercises in South Korea, essential for our own readiness and aimed apparently to appease Kim Jong-Un, were only met with further defiance from North Korea. (That’s generally how appeasement works.) https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1196593704095625217
4. South Korea, confronted with the new reality of an unpredictable and unreliable United States under Trump, signs an unprecedented defense pact with China, our primary great power competitor as defined in Trump’s own national security strategy. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/11/18/china-signs-defence-agreement-south-korea-us-angers-seoul-demand/
5. Back in the Middle East, as we hand military facilities to Russia (the other great power competitor) and Iran restarts its nuclear program, Saudi Arabia, recently attacked by Iran, reads the tea leaves and conducts joint naval exercises with China. https://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKBN1XU0AW#click=https://t.co/RUTtK3eeSa
That’s all in the last week. Ukraine is one piece of a dysfunctional foreign policy system under Trump. It’s disconnected from declared American interests. Diplomats can’t speak for our country even on established policies. Adversaries and competitors sense and seize advantage.
