1/ $SE 3Q2019 tidbits. As a reminder, SEA is a holding company incubating one of the most exciting mCommerce opportunities in South East Asia, #Shopee using a cash cow game distribution company. It is a US listing but SE Asian operation keeps it pretty off many US investor radar.
2. 763M$ Rev up 214%, Adjusted Ebitda -31M$/184 hints to the good stuff happening. Make no mistake, they could become profitable in a second if they wanted to but are building a network effect high ROCE business in a winner takes it all Ecommerce setting, beating Giants doing it.
3. Self-reliance on funding. It is expensive to build an $AMZN or $MELI. Garena cash (266M$ Ebitda up ~400%) is reinvested into #Shopee. "We continue to found our growth with cash generated through operations".
4. Strategy: "our strategic goal for 2019 has been to strengthen our leadership across different markets and business lines, scale with increasing efficiency and deepen user engagement and monetization." We are making excellent progress" and raising guidance.
5. Garena (the Game Distribution unit). Game distribution of hot games is an excellent Biz. $ATVI and Tencent games are in demand and on top of this, Garena produced a hit Battle Royal of their own: Free Fire - High grossing, Top mobile Hit specifically built for lower-end phones
6. "This was another great quarter for Garena led by the sustained success of our global smash hit Free Fire, which recently joined the $1 billion club as one of the highest-grossing mobile games in the world." Garena levels up with the top guys in the midst of a red hot sector.
7. Garena is exploding. Revs 451M$ up 212%. Adjusted Ebitda 266M$ up 395%. Behind these impressive stats are growing Users and deepening pay per user penetration. QAU up 82% to 321.1 million users. 9.1% thereof pay (4.1%yoy). And recall who they are (hint, Not rich Americans).
8. Free Fire ranked inside Top 5 most downloaded mGame (for 3 straight Qs) And was the Highest grossing mGame in Latam, SE Asia this Q. For DD hit "App Annie". Gaming IP (to the uninitiated) is a powerful, annuity-like, revenue stream if fresh content is provided as they do.
9. Free Fire "increasingly becoming a national pastime in Latin America, especially for the young and social population. We have further extended the game’s reach into the local communities with our network of followers, influencers as well as popular icons." $FB like engagement.
10. Brazil’s most popular DJ Alok, most loved music stars, has a character. Free Fire is an active Esport IP, too (driving stickiness). AND they partnered with India's largest media powerhouse India Today. If you control an Esport IP you have a license to print Cash.
11. Then there is all the revenue from Distributing other developers Games. Bottom line: Garena on its own is a great business that would prob go for 10 times Ebitda. That's most of the market cap of $SE. But it is not the reason $SE is such an attractive investment...
12. #Shopee is. It is the $MELI of SE Asia. In fact, it serves a Larger GMV (Q-4.6B$ vs 3.6B$) and has faster growth (Orders 100%/17.3%; value 70%/36%). But it is earlier on the monetization curve ~4.5% vs 16%. Take rate is going steadily up (4.5% / 2.6%)
13. Shopee is a leading platform "in Southeast Asia and Taiwan by average MAUs and downloads across the Google Play and iOS App Store combined and at the top-ranked app in Southeast Asia as a whole and in each of our five largest markets by total timing app on Android." Growth.
14. It growing so fast it has become "now one of the most popular and the fastest-growing e-commerce platform globally. In this Q, it was ranked the fifth most of downloaded app in the shopping category of worldwide across both Google Play and iOS App Store" (App Annie).
15. As Shopee grows (GMV, Take rate) fewer losses are incurred. Taiwan market (each market has dedicated local unit) is already profitable beyond HQ fixed costs. The inflection point is right now.
16. What is Shoppe worth? 10-15% take rate off GMV, 30% op. margin. Then use your own multiple for a leading network effect business growing rapidly in a rapidly growing area. Some cash on the Balance sheet. Reasonable Stock Outstanding. We're Long. DYODD.
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