Analysis with a calm mind needs to be done by all Hindus about the long term effects of BJP SS tussle.
Lot of opinions seen saying breakup with SS is good riddance, now its open field for BJP.
If SS NCP INC forms a govt n runs it for 2+ yrs, it will undo the major gains of BJP
Rapid growth of BJP post May 2014 is due to large scale defection of NCP INC leaders which saw no hope in their party revival.
30/105 current BJP MLA's r from INC NCP. Atleast 8-10 MLA who won in 2014 lost in 2019.
BJP simply don't have base in 90% of these seats.
Every chance that NCP INC leaders will ensure/compel these leaders to come back.
Some ex : Can BJP win Panvel, Shirdi, Rahuri, Nandurbar, Jintur, Chinchwad, Satara w/o the current face
NCP n INC r very shrewd parties. They knew power for some time is enough to send signal to muslims n dalits who have shifted to MIM n Ambedkar.
If INC NCP gets there old combination working its great advantage to them.
Next there r pockets of influence of SS. With power in hand it will try to consolidate. SS voters r not the educated one's but who consider pride important. SM abuse will not effect them.
Next SS NCP INC alliance will create problem for BJP in Mah/Kar by raking up Belgaum issue
Going thro list of SS MLA's there r not more than 10 seats which can switch to BJP in next election.
SS main rivals in elected seats r INC NCP. In max seats BJP don't have heavyweight candidates of its own, they r recruits.
With the next assembly election fought as
BJP vs SS vs INC+NCP with a depleted MIM, VBA my analysis is BJP will be restricted below 70 seats.
In LS people will vote for Modi still BJP will lose some existing seats.
If BJP r 20-25 short in Maharashtra in LS 2024 from where it will make up. Already peak has been reached in all states.
With SS breakup all other allies will do excessive blackmail.
BJP has already done lot of compromise to win 2019 elections.
SAD/Naresh Agrawal who joked on Ram/NE separatists/Kerala Christians/TN anarchists.
SAD has demanded court martialed Sikh soldiers to be pardoned, capital punishment of the killer of Beant Singh converted to life.
We all know the separatist tendencies n record of NE allies
Indian flag burners r pardoned in Goa.
If BJP can team up with all of them, then SS is far far better than them.
BJP should sit down n do a calm analysis n long term effect on Hindu revival struggle by its decision to breakup with SS.
Request to all BJP supporters n RW elites, don't precipitate the situation, don't burn bridges of realignment by below the belt abuse.
Lets give both BJP SS some time to do soul searching. Breakup is loss loss for both n Hindus.
Thread is only for sane people, hypers stay away.
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