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I am going to make a somewhat risky/bold prediction.
This Mailpac listing (in a few years), will prove to be a watershed moment for e-commerce in JA on many levels.
If you haven’t read the prospectus, you should do so.
//Thread
#FinanceTwitterJa https://www.jamstockex.com/mailpac-group-limited-prospectus/
This Mailpac listing (in a few years), will prove to be a watershed moment for e-commerce in JA on many levels.
If you haven’t read the prospectus, you should do so.
//Thread
#FinanceTwitterJa https://www.jamstockex.com/mailpac-group-limited-prospectus/
For an analysis of the actual offer, check out this great thread by @guruintraining_ published by @TRPinsights 
https://twitter.com/trpinsights/status/1194829203495145472?s=21
https://twitter.com/trpinsights/status/1194829203495145472?s=21
I am going to take a step back and just articulate some thoughts on the bigger picture (ie macro trends).
Even though, according to Mailpac’s estimates, e-commerce shopping has increased from 0.2% of adults in 2010 to approximately 6% today, there is still tremendous growth opp.
Even though, according to Mailpac’s estimates, e-commerce shopping has increased from 0.2% of adults in 2010 to approximately 6% today, there is still tremendous growth opp.
As someone that runs an e-commerce website, the biggest hurdle to e-commerce in JA is really a lack of trust.
Jamaicans, understandably (*cough* scamming *cough*) are very hesitant to purchase online.
I get it all the time.
Jamaicans, understandably (*cough* scamming *cough*) are very hesitant to purchase online.
I get it all the time.
I have to reassure people that the company that processes credit/debit cards ( @stripe) on our website are backed by PayPal founders, as well as some of the best tech investors on the planet and Visa.
Once they learn that, they feel better and go ahead with the purchase.
Once they learn that, they feel better and go ahead with the purchase.
So confidence and trust is a major deal. As more companies offer online e-commerce opportunities for customers, the market gets more comfortable and it grows.
A listing like this will bolster confidence in many minds about the viability of e-commerce.
A listing like this will bolster confidence in many minds about the viability of e-commerce.
So just the successful listing alone, I believe will drive more transactions in e-commerce in general and Mailpac transactional volume in particular.
As they get more resources and invest in growth, that will do the same.
It becomes a virtuous growth cycle.
As they get more resources and invest in growth, that will do the same.
It becomes a virtuous growth cycle.
As ppl hear about and trust it, they will shift more purchasing to the platform and given how diversified the group is they will be able to make significant inroads in the various niches they are expanding into (freight, local, marketplace, etc.).
On top of all of that, banks are actively looking at new growth opportunities for themselves which includes Visa cards (debit & credit) for personal and business. As margins get squeezed they will make these offerings more compelling which will drive e-commerce activity.
MasterCard is taking the region seriously and has opened an office in JA. You can tell by the amount of ads we see on this app.
As BOJ explores new regulations to incentivize FinTech experimentation, that will ultimately lead to more e-commerce opportunities generally.
As BOJ explores new regulations to incentivize FinTech experimentation, that will ultimately lead to more e-commerce opportunities generally.
What MailPac has done is created an e-commerce logistics platform.
I can think of at least 1 major angle that they either have missed, or haven’t disclosed because it is in incubation, that would be a major revenue/growth driver for them.
I can think of at least 1 major angle that they either have missed, or haven’t disclosed because it is in incubation, that would be a major revenue/growth driver for them.
I apologize but I won’t disclose that publicly because it is something I am interested in pursuing in some way in the near future.
But all I will say is that it hasn’t been priced into this offer and it could potentially produce double or triple their revenues.
But all I will say is that it hasn’t been priced into this offer and it could potentially produce double or triple their revenues.
As economic reforms progress over the next few years, the one part of the economy that we haven’t seen much progress on is customs.
But as the fiscal situation improves, it wouldn’t surprise me to see a reduction in Customs related fees/charges/duties.
But as the fiscal situation improves, it wouldn’t surprise me to see a reduction in Customs related fees/charges/duties.
As that happens, it will push up overall e-commerce transactions. Not just because it becomes more competitive to bring things in rather than buying locally but also because it reduces the incentives to pay under the table. So illicit shipments will become legit shipments.
As that transition happens it will drive demand for e-commerce services and Mailpac will be well positioned for that shift.
As fiscal reforms continue, economic growth will pickup as will purchasing power which will drive demand for e-commerce transactions.
As fiscal reforms continue, economic growth will pickup as will purchasing power which will drive demand for e-commerce transactions.
As more local Jamaican consumers come online, brands outside of Jamaica will leverage Jamaican influencers (for which there are already many, and many more will pop up over the years), and Jamaicans will have more options for products.
All of this drives e-commerce demand.
All of this drives e-commerce demand.
Also, keep in mind, that at 6% of the adult population as economic growth picks up, this is bound to grow.
As it grows, competition will intensify, but as the logistics platform is built out they will have a moat which makes buying cheaper and faster.
As it grows, competition will intensify, but as the logistics platform is built out they will have a moat which makes buying cheaper and faster.
So, all in all, everything we are seeing in the prospectus is literally the tip of the iceberg of the potential that Mailpac is positioned to benefit from — even without that major opportunity I mentioned.
If Khary or anyone from Mailpac is interested in discussing this further, I would love to discuss it with you.
All told, this is further proof that it is a great time to be alive in Jamaica.
It is getting cheaper and easier to live in JA and shop all around the world.
All told, this is further proof that it is a great time to be alive in Jamaica.
It is getting cheaper and easier to live in JA and shop all around the world.
Mailpac is accelerating that trend and as the economy improves it will continue to accelerate.
ShipMe and those other guys need to really pull up their socks and adapt quickly. I doubt Mailpac will kill them, but the ground they have been gaining could be erased quickly.
ShipMe and those other guys need to really pull up their socks and adapt quickly. I doubt Mailpac will kill them, but the ground they have been gaining could be erased quickly.
Very interesting times ahead and I am glad I am alive to witness it.
Jamaica
Land I Love.
Jamaica
Land I Love.
