Strom Thurmond's goal in 1948 was not to win the presidency outright -- he wasn't on many ballots, and he knew he wouldn't play in the North. It was to split the Electoral College and send the election to the House. And he came very, very close to succeeding.

If 12,500 votes in California and Ohio switch to Dewey, Truman has 253 electoral votes, short of what he needs for a majority in the Electoral College. So the election then goes to the House. 2/

In the House, it is the *new* House that votes. Each state delegation gets a vote. By my count, after the 1948 election, Rs control 18 delegations, four are tied, 15 are Northern Ds, and 11 are Southern Ds. 3/

Truman likely would have been elected president, but the South would have extracted severe concessions on civil rights, and the message would have been sent: Rowe was wrong about the South in his famous memo; Democrats could not afford to cross it on civil rights. 4/

12,500 votes utterly changed the course of our nation's history. /fin