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“Dictator”? Erdogan won the presidency in 2014 by more than half the vote (21 million). Obama praised Erdogan’s victory, adding that being the first directly elected President of Turkey was a "historical opportunity”. He topped ‘World's 500 Most Influential Muslims’ list in 2019. https://twitter.com/rbreich/status/1194636416195579904
2. Second, the so-called “wedge between NATO and Turkey” with respect to Turkey’s purchase of Russia’s S-400 missile defense system (a much cheaper and, some say, better alternative to US missile defense systems (MDS)) is due to foot dragging by Congress on MDS sales to Turkey.
3. While the Russian S-400s are pretty advanced, an even more advanced S-500 system is on the way. This is especially worrying for the Americans and NATO who were able to knock out Libya’s antiquated air defense system with impunity, facilitating
Gaddafi’s assassination.
Gaddafi’s assassination.
4. NATO vs Russia boils down to arms sales market share - Russia is building cheaper alternatives to US systems and countries facing a budget crunch who don’t want to be “locked into” NATO weapons ecosystem are seeing that there are other options. https://twitter.com/khanoisseur/status/1193693664922492928?s=21
5. Last month, Putin confirmed that Russia is helping China build a missile defense system, which China can use to protect its investments in the Belt and Road Initiative countries (and counter US). China can fund Russian weapons advancements in return. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/04/russia-and-china-to-build-a-missile-defense-system-putin-says.html
6. Tom Friedman once noted that “No two countries that both had McDonald's franchises had fought a war against each other”.
Could this theory apply to major weapons deals? If you become a major weapons customer, the seller will never attack the buyer? (Example: US-Saudi Arabia)
Could this theory apply to major weapons deals? If you become a major weapons customer, the seller will never attack the buyer? (Example: US-Saudi Arabia)
7. Erdogan is taking this theory to the next level - by hosting bases for US and buying both US and Russian weapons, is he showing the world that the two major weapons sellers, Russia and US can be forced to learn to coexist? https://twitter.com/khanoisseur/status/1194796463357939712?s=21
8. If more NATO and non-NATO countries start buying Russian missile defense systems, that essentially ends NATO. NATO countries faced pressure by Obama, Trump into spending 2%+ of GDP on their militaries. Many don’t, so US taxpayers make up the difference keep NATO afloat.
9. US demand that NATO countries spend more than 2% of GDP on military could also push more NATO members into making peace with the Russians. Reflecting their voters’ priorities, European countries spend 5% of GDP on infrastructure; US spends less than half that - 2.3%.
10. NATO is largely a US-taxpayer funded enterprise, as few countries meet the “2% of GDP spending on defense” NATO guideline (many are spending more on healthcare and infrastructure instead). US at 3.4% of GDP on military is an outlier. Turkey has reduced military spending too.
11. Some NATO members (all have “universal healthcare” BTW) who spend less than the 2% NATO threshold guideline on “defense”:
UK: 1.8%
Norway: 1.6%
Denmark: 1.3%
Canada: 1.2 %
Italy 1.2%
Sweden: 1.0%
Belgium: 0.9%
Luxembourg: 0.6%
(US: 3.4%; does not have universal healthcare)
UK: 1.8%
Norway: 1.6%
Denmark: 1.3%
Canada: 1.2 %
Italy 1.2%
Sweden: 1.0%
Belgium: 0.9%
Luxembourg: 0.6%
(US: 3.4%; does not have universal healthcare)
12. Under Erdogan, NATO member Turkey has reduced military spending to spend more on healthcare (it has universal healthcare) and infrastructure. It is also hosting millions of Syrian refugees who have poured across its borders since start of the Syrian “civil war” 8 years ago.
13. French President Macron dubbed NATO “brain-dead”. This alarmed Germany whose defense minister, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, promised Germany will pick up more weight (and not let US shoulder the burden): “Solidarity is not a one-way street” she tweeted. https://twitter.com/akk/status/1193919010070503429?s=21
14. Latest NATO report reveals only 7 of the 29 members have met defense spending targets. Macron has dubbed NATO “brain-dead” yet France spent only 1.82% of its GDP on defense - below 2% NATO threshold (while US spent 3.4% of its GDP on defense). https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/14/politics/nato-defense-spending-target/index.html
15. Trump has hammered NATO nations for not pulling their weight (as did Obama) in terms of defense spending as percentage of GDP. One graph Trump shared shows Turkey actually “pulling more weight” than France, Norway, Denmark Germany, Canada, Italy, Belgium, Spain, Luxembourg…
16. If Turkey decides to leave NATO (or is kicked out), could NATO survive without its defense spending? Possibly - other nations would have to pick up more weight. But if as Macron has said, if NATO is “brain-dead,” the rest of the body could die soon too. https://twitter.com/khanoisseur/status/1194851345230188544?s=21
17. While Obama and Trump have pressured NATO members to “pull their weight”, Trump has gone as far as to claim the military burden is “very unfair to United States” - but NATO member countries argue that the 2% NATO military spending guideline is unfair. https://twitter.com/khanoisseur/status/1194851345230188544?s=21
18. US military defense contractors however have done rather handsomely with US boosting military spending on NATO to make up for shortfalls by member nations. Democrats’ threats to fund their Medicare for All program via military cuts could end that party. https://twitter.com/khanoisseur/status/1194811005009833984?s=21
19. If Turkey pivoting to Russia for S-400 missile defense systems (or exiting NATO) doesn’t significantly alter NATO’s balance, Democrats’ cutting military spending (which impacts NATO) to fund “Medicare for All” could add more pressure on NATO members. https://twitter.com/khanoisseur/status/1194973891883610112?s=21
20. Before Macron dubbed NATO “brain-dead” there were already criticisms that NATO was obsolete as China, Iran were bigger emerging threats so NATO needs to expand east, critics argue. If Turkey exits NATO, Saudi Arabia, UAE could get recruited to NATO to bolster such expansion.
21. Oil-rich Arab countries Saudi Arabia, UAE, Oman, Kuwait and Bahrain have been quietly bolstering NATO as “unofficial members” via the “Istanbul Cooperation Initiative” pumping billions of dollars into NATO-ops under the guise of counter-proliferation and counter-terrorism.
22. UAE joined the “Istanbul Cooperation Initiative” (ICI) in 2004; became first Arab country to open an embassy at NATO. Saudi Arabia, which has been courted by NATO, was expected to join too, but recent Saudi-Turkey tensions have stalled efforts. https://twitter.com/khanoisseur/status/1194977040887361536?s=21
23. UAE was the first Arab country to contribute troops to the Nato-led mission in Afghanistan. UAE Armed Forces have served alongside American Green Berets in the southern province of Helmand. Last year, NATO officially initiated UAE into the alliance’s Resolute Support Mission.
24. With European and Canadian members of NATO struggling to fund their militaries, NATO is now turning to oil-rich Arab states to fund NATO expansion and bring in their armed forces, arguing that “terrorism” is NATO’s biggest shared challenge. https://twitter.com/khanoisseur/status/1194978757980958722?s=21
25. “Yes, terrorism is a big problem,” would argue Turkey, which has labeled PKK a terror org (as have NATO members US, UK). Some in Turkey have accused fellow NATO member Greece of providing training to PKK militants (who seek the overthrow of Erdogan). https://twitter.com/khanoisseur/status/1181210052591570944?s=21
26. So there’s a big schism within NATO over the PKK: US, UK, Turkey are aligned on one side in designating PKK a “terror org”, while Greece, France, and Germany say PKK (which has been involved in violent attacks in Turkey + drug trafficking) is not. https://twitter.com/khanoisseur/status/1194982661602840577?s=21
27. Some within NATO are nervous that pushing Turkey on its crackdown of the PKK will drive Turkey 
toward Russia 
at a time when NATO itself is trying to recruit oil-rich Arab states like UAE 
and Saudi Arabia 
to spend more on NATO’s “counter-terrorism” operations.
toward Russia at a time when NATO itself is trying to recruit oil-rich Arab states like UAE and Saudi Arabia to spend more on NATO’s “counter-terrorism” operations.
28. In July 2016, there was a military coup against Erdogan, which was a massive shock to Turkey. Parliament in Ankara was bombed by military aircraft, and more than 250 people were killed and 2,200 injured, many on the streets of Istanbul.
29. In April 2017, Erdogan won a constitutional referendum that granted him an “executive presidency,” abolishing the role of prime minister and parliamentary system of government - and with that, Turkey moved closer to US style of “executive presidency”. https://twitter.com/khanoisseur/status/1195000207227990021?s=21
30. The move granted Erdogan extensive powers, allowing the president to issue decrees that form or regulate ministries and to appoint or dismiss civil servants without parliamentary approval. He can also draft the budget and appoint senior judges — similar to powers of POTUS.
31. The US-style “executive presidency” Erdogan has instituted also allows him greater control over levers of economic policy too. Erdogan now has the ability to appoint a central bank governor (just Iike POTUS can appoint federal reserve chair) and, like POTUS, order arrests.
32. While Obama and Trump have largely used their executive presidency powers to spy electronically, arrest/round up “illegal immigrants” or to assassinate “terrorists” overseas, Erdogan has used powers of his executive presidency to crack down on supporters of the coup attempt.
33. In the aftermath of the failed July 2016 military coup attempt on his government, Erdogan suspended some 2% of teachers after accusing them of ties to the outlawed PKK (which US, UK consider a “terror org”) and for spreading “terrorist propaganda”. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37312116
34. Taking a leaf out of US Presidents’ playbook, Erdogan used his military to enforce Turkey’s borders across which millions of Syrian refugees have poured in due to the Syrian “civil war”. Turkish military is engaged in an effort to create a “safe zone” to repatriate refugees.
35. NATO member Turkey which previously accused fellow NATO member Greece 
of training outlawed PKK (considered a “terror org by US, UK) militants is now accusing Greece of illegally deporting Syrian 
refugees to Turkey (which is already hosting 4 million Syrian refugees).
which previously accused fellow NATO member Greece of training outlawed PKK (considered a “terror org by US, UK) militants is now accusing Greece of illegally deporting Syrian refugees to Turkey (which is already hosting 4 million Syrian refugees).
36. So…yeah…you could say that NATO is kind of a mess right now with only 7 of 29 members meeting their 2% of GDP on defense spending guidelines, with US spending way more on military instead of on healthcare and infrastructure, and member-infighting. https://twitter.com/khanoisseur/status/1195009381219405824?s=21
37. And whom did NATO member Turkey blame for the failed military coup attempt? The vast political network led by fellow NATO member (U.S.)-based cleric Fethullah Gülen (many “Gülenists” hold positions of power in Turkey's police forces and judiciary). https://twitter.com/khanoisseur/status/1195000207227990021?s=21
38. After the coup attempt, Turkish prime minister Binali Yıldırım told The Guardian: "Of course, since the leader of this terrorist organisation is residing in the U.S., there are question marks in the minds of the people whether there is any U.S. involvement or backing.”
39. Following the failed coup attempt, a Turkish lawyer filed a criminal complaint against senior US generals and James Clapper (then Dir of National Intelligence) alleging that the American officials conspired with a faction of the Turkish military at Turkey's Incirlik Air Base.
40. Let this sink in - one NATO member blatantly accused another NATO member of participating in a military coup attempt to overthrow a democratically elected government. Now where have we heard these accusations before? https://twitter.com/khanoisseur/status/1195019483901054976?s=21
