Allow me to elaborate further on this based on some comments and DMs (lil thread)

whether or not @tsrandall has an interest in spit-shining this poll's results or if its 100% accurate, based on months of forum reading, its directionally correct IMO.

$tsla $tslaq https://twitter.com/PlugInFUD/status/1194610615928705026

There are two bars that are important here - "i would buy a model 3 again" and the reliability one.

Re: repurchasing, credit to Elon where it is due - there is truly nothing like the Model 3 out there. The quickness, the technology (from ipad to FSD), and even the cult membership - its truly irreplaceable (other than by another Tesla). $tsla $tslaq

Thus (and again from wasting my life reading forums) I believe bar #2 to be completely true - the vast, vast majority of Model 3 owners, barring unforeseen circumstances (loss of job, relocation to the Yukon Territory) will indeed buy one again.

Now, of course, it won't be 100%. We've seen the service horror stories and some people surely got burnt bad enough to switch to whatever else. Some Tesla-stretchers will probably do the math and buy a cheaper, if more boring EV as those options continue to come to market.

which ties into the reliability bar. While we still don't know what 5+ year (or really 2+ year) reliability will be like for the Model 3, as discussed on @tslaqpodcast, despite the horror stories, the data (here and the forum) continues to show that it's generally good enough.

So whats the upshot? I for one think that we're now at "flow" demand and expecting a yuge drop in regular* buying is perhaps too bearish. (*there will likely be drops in places like NL as extremely generous subsidies roll off, but perhaps Elon can replace).

I'd expect 3 & Y sales to *together* generally plateau around this level or so for the medium term, as replacement + new buyers (CA fanboys graduating college and getting that first job, etc.) offsets some attrition. (and of course Q to Q there will be flux).

There will also likely be room for further growth (or contraction), as non-fanboys currently on the sidelines see whether or not their friends' Model 3's hold up through their first (or second) winter, the lack of need for or horrible struggle with service visits, etc.

So, that's BullElmer's take on the dyanmics of the Tesla owner and US marketplace, based primarily on spending way too much of my life on the forums back in the day. Not supposed to be FUD or anti-FUD, just a view based on lots of anecdotes. $tsla $tslaq

p.s., forgot to mention: IMO biggest threat to this plateau is if insurance costs/availability continue to trend as it has (higher/worse). There will still be some fanboys who will own a Tesla at any price, but for the fringe cult member, at some point will be impossible/no-go.