Right then, let's have a look at a seat that will decide whether its next MP is a Lib Dem or a member of Plaid Cymru... Or is there potential here for other parties to sneak in? Let's take a look at this unique battleground.

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Ceredigion lies on the Welsh coast and is a very rural constituency with few towns within its boundaries, the
largest of them being Aberystwyth. It shares its boundary with the Welsh County of the same name, which is remarkably nice for people like me who love a good map. (2/14)

Because it has the same boundaries as the council, the map of the wards within it is not as interesting as others. Nevertheless here it is, and you'll be glad to hear it tells us nothing about how the seat performs at Westminster level. (3/14)

The seat has a twin in the Welsh Assembly with same name and boundary. Looking at results from here aren't too useful however, not least because the last election was before 2017 and the next one won't be until at least 2021. Here's the latest result for that anyway:

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In fact, since the creation of the Welsh Assembly in 1999, the seat has always voted Plaid. At Westminster level however the seat was historically Liberal was decades (bar 1966) until Plaid gained the short lived Ceredigion & Pembroke North seat off them in 1992.

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When the original seat was restored in '97 Plaid kept it...until '05 when the Lib Dems reclaimed the seat as 1 of the 62 seats they won that year (different times). In 2015 the seat seemed rather unaffected by the Lib Dem collapse and was held with a decent majority.

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Then 2017 came around and honestly it's hard to be sure exactly what votes went where... Plaid increased their vote slightly; the Lib Dem vote reduced again and both the Tories and Labour improved. This resulted in a Plaid majority of 104 and no Lib Dems left in Wales.

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But that was then and this is now; since then the Lib Dems are up in the polls and have won a by-election in neighbouring Brecon & Randorshire, and the swing needed here is much smaller then what was required there... Except of course this is against Plaid not the Tories.

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Plaid of course have signed up to the 'Unite to Remain' pact with the Lib Dems and Greens however this pact does not stretch to here. Straight fight, but could this let someone else in..?

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Answer: Probably not.

Labour vote share has gone down everywhere, including Wales and there's no reason to think that the Lib Dem and PC vote would get 'squeezed' here. The Conservatives *might* have a shot with the Leave vote if LD and PC split remain but I believe...

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...the Brexit Party still plan to stand here. If they do then I don't see anyone breaking through, if they don't however, the Tories would only need ~4000 votes to break through. Though remember; this is a remain area and the Uni students won't have gone home just yet...

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So will it come down to local issues? The incumbent MP Ben Lake is liked by the locals and is a local himself, his main opponent is the old MP Mark Williams so this really will be a battle that's won and fought locally.

Which I guess brings me to my conclusion...

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I am really struggling to call this one, if we go off polls, it should be a Lib Dem Gain, but I think polls are irrelevant here. A few remain Tories may slip their way but a few remain Labour voters may slip the other. So I'm gonna go with my gut and what I've heard...

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...and say that due to the popularity of the local MP, it will be a close, hard fought...

Plaid Cymru HOLD.

Whew, that was fun, can't all seats be that interesting?

Enjoy this? Smaller previews are on @YorkshireElects and I'm open to do other ones on here.

Thanks!

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