Read on Twitter
What's the worst take? This has to be a contender. (Sorry @FredericHof, I need to be a bit brutal): https://twitter.com/AtlanticCouncil/status/1194555597221486594
Essentially, Hof is arguing that because Nasrallah took the side of his fellow zuama, the West should jump in on the side of the uprising. Which of course would do nothing but undermine it.
Remarkably, he calls Nasrallah the "principal defender" of the political class. I am at a loss as to how Nasrallah is somehow more of a defender than Aoun, Hariri, etc.
Of course, this paints a nice little picture in people's minds:
1. People are rising up against a corrupt political system
2. Nasrallah is the principal defender of this system
3. (Hmmmm...)
1. People are rising up against a corrupt political system
2. Nasrallah is the principal defender of this system
3. (Hmmmm...)
Get it? The revolution boils down to another chance for us DC types to take down Hezbollah!
To put a cherry on top, Hof ends his argument talking about how Nasrallah fears a system based on consent of the governed. There were a lot of problems with the 2018 elections, but Hezbollah winning the most votes wasn't the result of some weird gerrymandering.
Love them or hate them, Hezbollah has a very real and very broad base of support. Again, I'm at a bit of a loss as to how Hof doesn't recognize this. (Yes, there are a lot of Shiites protesting, but this doesn't mean some DC fever dream is finally coming true.)
Of course, if Hof did recognize Hezbollah's popular support, he would face one of the quandaries of US policy in Lebanon: If you claim to support democracy, you can't just disqualify Hezbollah.
Anyway, Hof's policy prescription is for the West to jump in on the side of the protesters. His argument: Nasrallah is already claiming we're involved, so why not?
Why not? Because many here believe Nasrallah is off base. If the US suddenly jumps in, you'll be proving Nasrallah rightâand of course undermine the uprising. Which is a weird thing to do if you want to support it.
Big picture: This appears to be a failure to understand what the protests are actually about. Over the past month, the ground has shifted dramatically here in Lebanon. DC types should not seek to reignite the same old March 14 vs. March 8 battle.
Oh yeah: Had Nasrallah joined the protesters that first weekend, would Hof still be with the uprising?
