Read on Twitter
Urgentish THREAD: There's new estimate of Europe's undocumented or shadow population. Comes from @pewresearch. Will generate lots of noise because in some places (UK) it's the 1st estimate in a decade
Given the importance of migration in politics, you might expect that we'd know roughly how many migrants are in EU countries without the right to remain. We don't.
Intrinsically it’s hard to count but not impossible. Last serious effort was the Clandestino project in 2009 (1.8-3.3m in EU, beware estimates without ranges). It called for a database to be created. It wasn’t. http://irregular-migration.net/typo3_upload/groups/31/4.Background_Information/4.2.Policy_Briefs_EN/ComparativePolicyBrief_SizeOfIrregularMigration_Clandestino_Nov09_2.pdf
Pew's big number is 3.9-4.8m (as of 2017) & there are serious problems both with how this number is arrived at & how it will likely be used. Report: https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2019/11/13/europes-unauthorized-immigrant-population-peaks-in-2016-then-levels-off/
Pew takes one-size-fits-all approach, copied from US which compares census findings on who lives there with foreign-born register. EU has no centralized census or foreign-born registers. One size doesn't fit all
At #ReturnsNetwork we’ve been reporting on the shadow population: how it’s created, why it grows or shrinks & what it says about repressive migration policies
Obvious response to new BIG number will be to call for increased returns, tougher residence restrictions & more incentives to migrants to leave. More hostile environment
But this is line most govts are already pushing. There is compelling case that get tough policies are generating a larger shadow population by stripping more people of any right to remain.
We’re two stories into a 3-part series in @decorrespondent taking a deep dive into Europe’s shadow population w/reporting from @lorenzo_bagnoli @klaasvandijken @MelanieBoeff & others https://decorrespondent.nl/10406/niemand-weet-hoeveel-illegale-migranten-er-in-europa-zijn-toch-bepalen-aannames-hierover-het-beleid/4098681085884-f9467ece
What it reveals is a conflict opening up between govts & cities that echoes battle between US sanctuary cities & White House. Govt plays pop politics w/bad laws while cities, church-groups & citizens respond w/workarounds for people directly affected
As Lefteris (Athens point-man on migration until recently) says:
‘System creates undocumented people. In some cases the (national) government doesn't care but cities don't have a choice, the people are just there and need to be dealt with.'
‘System creates undocumented people. In some cases the (national) government doesn't care but cities don't have a choice, the people are just there and need to be dealt with.'
To understand the flaws in @pewresearch numbers follow @MigObs @M_Sumption. For smart work on cities @COMPAS_oxford & Sarah Spencer
For thoughts on solutions @Michele_LeVoy & @PICUM_post are good. And much more to come from #ReturnsNetwork debunking the whole mix of good politics, bad policy
