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Urgentish THREAD: There& #39;s new estimate of Europe& #39;s undocumented or shadow population. Comes from @pewresearch. Will generate lots of noise because in some places (UK) it& #39;s the 1st estimate in a decade
Given the importance of migration in politics, you might expect that we& #39;d know roughly how many migrants are in EU countries without the right to remain. We don& #39;t.
Intrinsically it’s hard to count but not impossible. Last serious effort was the Clandestino project in 2009 (1.8-3.3m in EU, beware estimates without ranges). It called for a database to be created. It wasn’t. http://irregular-migration.net/typo3_upload/groups/31/4.Background_Information/4.2.Policy_Briefs_EN/ComparativePolicyBrief_SizeOfIrregularMigration_Clandestino_Nov09_2.pdf">https://irregular-migration.net/typo3_upl...
Pew& #39;s big number is 3.9-4.8m (as of 2017) & there are serious problems both with how this number is arrived at & how it will likely be used. Report: https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2019/11/13/europes-unauthorized-immigrant-population-peaks-in-2016-then-levels-off/">https://www.pewresearch.org/global/20...
Pew takes one-size-fits-all approach, copied from US which compares census findings on who lives there with foreign-born register. EU has no centralized census or foreign-born registers. One size doesn& #39;t fit all
At #ReturnsNetwork we’ve been reporting on the shadow population: how it’s created, why it grows or shrinks & what it says about repressive migration policies
Obvious response to new BIG number will be to call for increased returns, tougher residence restrictions & more incentives to migrants to leave. More hostile environment
But this is line most govts are already pushing. There is compelling case that get tough policies are generating a larger shadow population by stripping more people of any right to remain.
We’re two stories into a 3-part series in @decorrespondent taking a deep dive into Europe’s shadow population w/reporting from @lorenzo_bagnoli @klaasvandijken @MelanieBoeff & others https://decorrespondent.nl/10406/niemand-weet-hoeveel-illegale-migranten-er-in-europa-zijn-toch-bepalen-aannames-hierover-het-beleid/4098681085884-f9467ece">https://decorrespondent.nl/10406/nie...
What it reveals is a conflict opening up between govts & cities that echoes battle between US sanctuary cities & White House. Govt plays pop politics w/bad laws while cities, church-groups & citizens respond w/workarounds for people directly affected
As Lefteris (Athens point-man on migration until recently) says:
‘System creates undocumented people. In some cases the (national) government doesn& #39;t care but cities don& #39;t have a choice, the people are just there and need to be dealt with.& #39;
‘System creates undocumented people. In some cases the (national) government doesn& #39;t care but cities don& #39;t have a choice, the people are just there and need to be dealt with.& #39;
To understand the flaws in @pewresearch numbers follow @MigObs @M_Sumption. For smart work on cities @COMPAS_oxford & Sarah Spencer
For thoughts on solutions @Michele_LeVoy & @PICUM_post are good. And much more to come from #ReturnsNetwork debunking the whole mix of good politics, bad policy
