Pro Football Reference does an Expected Points metric. Statisticians looked at decades worth of play by plays to develop points expectations for every play, based on down, distance, yard line. The result of the actual play changes this figure. @3YardsPerCarry @5ReasonsSports

For example you’re 2nd & 2 at the 2 yard line. Expected points for that situation is +5.72. You score the TD, that changes to +7 points. The difference (+1.28) shows offensive did better than expected. But the defense (-1.28) did worse than expected. You can sum these up by unit.

This is all inspired by Bob Carroll, Pete Palmer, and John Thorn’s 1988 book, The Hidden Game of Football. But there’s a point to all this. I’ve talked before about this graph, which is Miami’s rolling 3-week game score differential, how similar it is to NE’s famous uptrend.

But we can get a closer look at the SOURC of improvement. Let’s start with NE. These linear regressions are based on every Expected Points Added figure from every Patriots unit, every game, 2000-19. It’s been the DEFENSE that improves thru the season for NE. The Belichick effect.

Getting back to Miami here are the week by week EPA totals specifically for Brian Flores & Patrick Graham’s DEFENSE:

Week 01: -42.7
Week 02: -14.1
Week 03: -19.6
Week 04: -15.5
Week 06: -1.2
Week 07: -6.1
Week 08: -5.6
Week 09: +2.8
Week 10: +17.0

Notice something? Improvement!

We don’t necessarily see the same trend on OFFENSE or SPECIAL TEAMS for Miami. Here are those scores, added up:

Week 01: -10.3
Week 02: -23.4
Week 03: -7.8
Week 04: -3.5
Week 06: -2.4
Week 07: +2.0
Week 08: -7.0
Week 09: +4.3
Week 10: -13.6

A bit more jumpy, inconsistent.

So what do we conclude from all of this? We know Miami’s results are improving as they get thru the year, and that NE has exhibited the same tendency over time.

But Miami are achieving this improvement THE SAME WAY the Pats generally do...primarily by DEFENSIVE improvement.

If you were to ask me, this lends weight to the theory Brian Flores (and Patrick Graham, Josh Boyer) may truly have brought this idiosyncratic tendency to improve thru the season over from NE. It may not just be a fluky small set of game scores. @3YardsPerCarry @5ReasonsSports