(Thread!) As we lay down some groundwork for our November election analysis, let's look at some new voter registration numbers for #BayRidge!

(2/6) In the last nine months, there's been a net change of +944 voters in Bay Ridge! The net gains are +634 Democrat, +35 republican, and +5 conservative party. Working Family had -3, Green -10, Libertarian +10, Independence +17, Other -2, No Party Affiliation +294.

(3/6) When you drill down into the gains/losses in each ED, there are some fun indicators: Republicans lost 71 voters and gained 106. Democrats lost 24 voters and gained 658.

Conservatives lost 15 gained 20. Working Families lost 13, gained 10. Libertarians lost 4, gained 14.

(4/6) Note however those gains and losses could possibly be *more* extreme since we can't drill down further than the ED level (each ED is the net change over a few specific blocks) but it does show the Dems bleeding far fewer voters than more conservative parties.

(5/6) Keep in mind, too... this is what has changed over the course of only nine months, since the February 2019. Some easy takeaways: new voters are mostly Democrat in #BayRidge, losses from moves/deaths on the Republican side are eating into their registration gains....

(6/6) ...or, one possible factor, is that increasingly polarized right-wing talking points turn off *existing* Republican voters at almost the same rate it attracts *new* voters. How true this is depends on how many moves and deaths have happened in the last 9 months.

(7/6) Final note: The last city council race was decided by just about 900 votes. Dem gains from the past 9 months alone almost double that gap, especially when you consider that recent registrants are far more likey to vote with the party they enrolled with.