Thread by @RobSlater10, THREAD: Through ten games, who are the Miami Heat? Let’s start with [...]

THREAD: Through ten games, who are the Miami Heat? Let’s start with some general stuff that caught my eye and get more specific from there.

DRTG: 101.6 (4th)
AST%: 65.7 (2nd)
TOV%: 17.7 (t-30th)
REB%: 51.9 (5th)
Pace: 103.13 (13th)

Mostly curious about how the pace numbers progress as the season goes on. We’ll see if Spo wanting to push the pace wins out over the “Jimmy likes to slow it down” narrative. Rebounding has held without Whiteside so far and man those turnover numbers are no bueno.

Heat are second in the league in total field goals made assisted (65.7%) and have roughly a 60/40 split between 2PA and 3PA. For comparison, last year’s team finished at 63.2/36.8.

DEFENSIVELY: League-best 28.9 opponent 3P% and 28th in total opponent 3PA with almost 38 (!) allowed per game. There’s been a lot of talk about the Heat letting the right guys shoot and this is a shining example. Also the biggest #OfCourse test of them all. Two numbers to watch.

Okay, team stats are mostly indicative of a good team that’s won more than its lost through three games. More interesting is the player trends so far, so…

Winslow ON/OFF:
Minutes: 181/304
Net: +9.5/+1.7
Pace: 108.5/101.1 (!!!)

Point Winslow, through ten games, is good.

Two of the most befuddling ON/OFF sets, right here:

Bam Adebayo:
Net: +3.2/+11.7
DRTG: 101.2/97.4
Pace: 102.5/108.1

Goran Dragic:
Net: +2.2/+11.4
DRTG: 106.5/90.2
eFG%: 56.3/51.5

Heat’s best two-man lineups by net rating (min 100 minutes played):

1. Olynyk/Robinson (+18.4)
2. Winslow/Nunn (+14.5)
3. Butler/Leonard (+11.9)
4. Winslow/Adebayo (+11.4)
5. Robinson/Nunn (+10.0)

WORST:

1. Dragic/Nunn (-20.7)
2. Dragic/Adebayo (-7.9)
3. Adebayo/Herro (-1.8)

Best three-man lineups (min. 75 minutes):

1. Adebayo/Robinson/Nunn (+18.5)
2. Dragic/Olynyk/Robinson (+16.5)
3. Winslow/Adebayo/Nunn (+13.4)

WORST:

1. Dragic/Butler/Adebayo (-5.8)
2. Dragic/Adebayo/Herro (-3.9)
3. Leonard/Adebayo/Herro (-0.7)

Adebayo and Herro have played 158 minutes together with a -1.8 net rating, so it hasn’t been as bad as that previous tweet may suggest. Dragic and Herro also have a positive net rating.

Let’s transition to a quick study on shot quality: The Heat are taking 10.5% of their shots with four or less seconds left on the shot clock, second in the league. Only shooting 30% on those shots. We’ve seen this team overpass at times, this probably factors into that.

However, 30.1% of their shots are considered “open” (closest defender 4-6 feet) with a 52.6% eFG (14th). 16.4% of their 3PA are deemed “open” which is 8th in the league.

21% of their FGA are “wide open” (17th) but they’re shooting 61.8% on those attempts, fifth in the league.

Defensively, the Heat average 27 contested three-point attempts per game. Combine that with the 38 attempts they’re allowing and the league-low percentage allowed and things start to make sense. These aren’t wide open threes by any stretch.

IT. IS. TIME. to fire up Synergy. Let’s talk PPP, my friends.

OVERALL PLAY TYPE (w/frequency):
P&R Ball Handler: 18.9%/0.753 PPP/26th
Spot Up: 18.8%/1.009 PPP/10th
Transition: 14.5%/1.091 PPP/15th

CATCH AND SHOOT: 28.8% freq/1.167 PPP/6th (!!)

Jump Shot Breakdown:
Short (<17ft): 8.8%
Medium (17ft <3PA): 14.2%
Long (3PA): 76.9%

For comparison, the “short” jumpers frequency ranks 26th in the league. Medium ranks 12th (the Spurs take 32.4% of their jumpers from the mid range!!). Long ranks 9th (Houston at 90.5%!).

Some notable player metrics from Synergy by playtype:

SPOT UP:
ROBINSON: 15.9% freq/1.147 PPP/74th percentile/59.4 eFG%

HERRO: 10.3% freq/1.455 PPP/97th percentile/75 eFG%

The Heat are overall 10th in spot up situations, producing 1.009 points per possession. 51.8 eFG%.

TRANSITION:

NUNN: 21.2% freq/1.2 PPP/66th percentile/66.7 eFG%

HERRO: 10.3% freq/0.765 PPP/9th percentile

Should note that Herro was an elite transition player at Kentucky, making this among the more bizarre trends through ten games. Easy money it’ll improve.

CUT:
ADEBAYO: 25.4% freq/0.844 PPP/6th percentile

Bam has excelled in P&R roll man situations (84th percentile) but hasn’t quite caught on anywhere else. His low transition numbers (0.895 PPP) tie in with his low pace when he’s on the floor. He only has 8 FGA in transition.

Tyler Herro in hand offs: 1.077 PPP/77th percentile.

Again, it remains bizarre that Herro is excelling just about everywhere except the area (transition) that he was so good at in college. If he even reaches level in that department, his offensive game is going to take off.

Herro in COLLEGE ranked in the 87th percentile in transition and shot 65%. He scored 57% of the time he touched the ball in transition. He obviously won’t reach this level of production in the NBA but if he even hits league average, it’s a wrap.

A couple of defensive notes then I’m shutting up:

Heat are 2nd in overall half court and 14th in transition defense, allowing 0.873 PPP in the half court which is devastating. The player numbers are even better….

Bam Adebayo is in the 86th percentile as a defender allowing 0.765 PPP. He’s allowed a 40% shooting percentage. For comparison, Rudy Gobert has allowed 40.7%. Bam’s allowed a score 33.8% of the time. Gobert at 34.3%.

Jimmy Butler’s defensive numbers seem in line with what we expected: 88th percentile, 0.742 PPP.

I won’t bore you with drilling down on playtypes for defensive situations as that isn’t all that useful without a much larger sample size.

BUT, one more thing...

Defensive shooting numbers seem to back up the idea that the Heat are letting the right people shoot while not exactly leaving them *open*, as we saw in the contested numbers.

Catch and Shoot:
Guarded: 0.695 PPP/34% (2nd)
Unguarded: 1.047 PPP/35.7% (8th)

Jump Shots:
Medium: 0.596 PPP/29.8%/5th
Long (3PA): 0.884 PPP/43.9%/2nd

Overall, the Heat are 4th in defending jump shots.

A lot of the offensive numbers will change dramatically, I imagine, as players return to the lineup and the rotation sorts itself out. In another 20 games we’ll probably have a whole different set of data with different names.

But I don’t expect there to be a ton of variation in the defensive numbers. This is who the Heat are regardless of who is on the floor. Look less at how many *points* they’re allowing and more at shot quality. So much of this league is now about getting the right guy to shoot.

And the Heat have done that just about better than everyone else in the league. Gone are the days of sub-95 defensive ratings, at least for large stretches of the season. In are the days of disrupting offenses and baiting them into open/semi-open shots from bad players.

/fin

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