Read on Twitter
For 42 years, the @IEA scenarios have been used as predictions. Seen from that perspective they have been phenomenally succesful in underplaying the role of renewables and bolstering investments in fossil fuels.
That's bad!
/start rant https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1XM2DV?__twitter_impression=true
That's bad!
/start rant https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1XM2DV?__twitter_impression=true
For solar I probably made the most well know tracker of IEA failures (that I shall update to include this year soon). See my pinned tweet.
@MLiebreich even claims it bolstered his choice to found @BloombergNEF if I'm not mistaken. And I'm glad more ppl are noticing now.
@MLiebreich even claims it bolstered his choice to found @BloombergNEF if I'm not mistaken. And I'm glad more ppl are noticing now.
Time and time again @IEABirol deflects this criticism by saying "I don't make predictions but 'mumble' ". That is utter nonsense: science IS prediction. Especially If you show a future as the outcome of a model you make a prediction. Period.
You (Birol) could argue that your black box model predicts something else than what critics think it predicts.
Fine!
But then tell us what policies exactly did(n't) you include and what assumptions on renewable cost developments where you making.
Fine!
But then tell us what policies exactly did(n't) you include and what assumptions on renewable cost developments where you making.
I've studied your predictions better than most and I think that transparency would lead us to conclude they have been abysmal. But maybe I'm wrong.
Show me Birol!
No way to know right now. Which shows us you are engaging in pseudoscience, not fasifiable real science.
Show me Birol!
No way to know right now. Which shows us you are engaging in pseudoscience, not fasifiable real science.
So what's going on here? How can the @IEA continue to produce something that doesn't offer a usable (and falsifiable) prediction but that everybody uses as a usable prediction.
Faith Birol suggests people like me have been hoodwinked but I think he is doing the hoodwinking.
Faith Birol suggests people like me have been hoodwinked but I think he is doing the hoodwinking.
The @IEA should FINALLY start making the predictions everybody wants them to make: their best guess.
Put up or shut up!
And they should be transparent about their assumptions so that if they predict spectacularly wrong, we can all determine why and help them improve.
/endrant
Put up or shut up!
And they should be transparent about their assumptions so that if they predict spectacularly wrong, we can all determine why and help them improve.
/endrant
Thanks for bringing it to my attention. @TomasMaltby https://twitter.com/TomasMaltby/status/1194579766952767490?s=19
And thank you @Sustainable2050 for pointing this out for so long too and thank you @DrSimEvans for being much more thorough about it than me. https://twitter.com/DrSimEvans/status/1194541551055200256?s=19
And @Peters_Glen, maybe you disagree the @IEA models are unusable but don't you agree people are using them as best guesses and it would be helpful if they dared to make one?
Also, if you can tell me the renewable and storage LCOEs over time they use I would be much oblighed.
Also, if you can tell me the renewable and storage LCOEs over time they use I would be much oblighed.
Maybe we are finally putting some presure on. I agree with the change in DNA part. https://twitter.com/AssaadRazzouk/status/1194591324009353216?s=19
