A thread on the DA and its support among black voters. The argument is often made that, for the DA to grow, it needs to grow among black voters, primarily because it has reached a ceiling among minority voters. 1/

It is problematic to identify a market solely by race, for the simple and obvious reason that race is not deterministic. People of all races vote for a wide variety of reasons. Race can be one of them but that applies less to the DA, because its brand is primarily non-racial. 2/

That said, there are some general correlations between race and voting preference, as there is among issues that matter to voters and their race, and so there is some value in looking at the electoral market by race, so long as you understand the limitations. 3/

So, what is the DA's record among black voters? For a long time one had to rely on second-hand party information or limited external data for a gauge. But the DA post-election review contains the most definitive record to date. The relevant table follows below. 4/

A few things are worth noting. First, the relative explosion in black DA support in 2000. The 4.9% it secured then was up from almost nothing, and puts paid to the idea that DP/NNP merger closed off black support to the DA. If anything, it opened the door to it. 5/

Second, since 2000, support for the DA among black voters first declined (down to 0.8% in 2009) and then, during the Zuma years, grew generally (up to 5.9% in 2016). In 2019, it declined again (down to 4%) but was actually up from the last national election in 2014 (3.2%). 6/

Third, significantly, those small percentages represent a relatively large number of people. 4% of all black voters is around 520,000 people. To put it in perspective, the IFP got 588,000 votes in 2019 (3.4%). The UDM just 78,000 votes (0.4%) and the ATM 76,000 votes (0.4%). 7/

Put another way: Combined, the UDM, ATM, GOOD, NFP, AIC, COPE and PAC got 414,733 votes between them all in 2019. The DA got 100,000 more votes in 2019, exclusively among black voters, than those seven parties managed in total. So 520,000 votes is a significant number. 8/

But you would never guess this, reading the press. You'd think the DA on 0% among black voters. One thing is for sure - you never read any comparative political analysis saying the PAC or the UDM in a crisis when it comes to black voters. They escape any pressure of any sort. 9/

Here is the interesting thing: How most commentators on the DA, write off these 520,000 black DA voters as non-existent, in favour of those black voters who did not vote DA. This significant block is dismissed out-of-hand. Who they are, why they vote DA - zero interest. 10/

The truth is, they are a massive inconvenience to many DA analysts, who must pretend absolutely the DA has failed to connect with black voters at all, to maintain their typically reductionist view of the DA. Thus, they are eradicated from all analysis of the party. 11/

In turn, "black" voters, to whom the DA is supposedly appealing, are constantly defined in terms of those who didn't vote DA - as if there exists some uniform, racial archetype (which of course relies on eradicating those black voters who did vote DA). 12/

Much to their constination, the DA results prove that not all black voters are the same and, ironically, analysing them like that a stupid way to understand the DA's performance. But rather than understand those who do, or might, analysis focuses on those who won't. 13/

By comparison, no one asks why ostensibly "black" parties like the UDM or PAC are failing to connect with black voters - because they are "black" parties, and so that is okay? COPE is an even better example, a non-racial party like the DA, why is it never cross-examined? 14/

So much political analysis in SA is driven by unsubstantiated and prejudiced dogma. The DA dropped among black voters, it dropped across the board, but it does have the support of a significant number of black voters - 520,000 to be exact. That deserves some acknowledgement. 15/

It is true and fair to say is not growing among "black" voters at the rate it should, and 2019 was a setback. But to pretend it has completely failed it just wrong, on the facts. And to ignore those "black" voters who did vote DA is to completely disrespect their choice. 16/

This is a difficult concept for race-reductionists to accept but not every black voter is available to the DA. Just as not every republican available to the democrats. A portion of black voters are. How big is difficult to say, perhaps between 20% and 30% of all black voters. 17/

In reality, the DA has capitalised in around 1 in 4 or 1 in 5 black voters who are actually available to it. That is not a great record, but it is far, far better than pretending every black voters available to the party. That is just myopic and silly. 18/

Racial nationalists, radical conservatives and socialists will never be available to the DA. And nor should they be, whatever their race. The DA does not stand for what they believe in. People need to start to understand that (including many in the DA). 19/

Finally, if you genuinely interested in how the DA is to grow further among black voters, might be an idea to look at the half-a-million black voters who already vote DA, and to acknowledge their existence, as damaging as that may be for any racially-deterministic analysis. 20/