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[THREAD] What is Emmanuel #Macron's strategic vision? @MacaesBruno suggests he is animated by a fear of #Islamism. That maybe true. But I think he is animated also by something else... https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-islamophobic-undercurrent-french-vision/ [1/16]
President Macron came to power promising to re-centralise #France in the framework of #EU integration, both economically and strategically. This is because his real fear is the weakening of French autonomy in the face of #Germany's growing power. [2/16]
The #UK's withdrawal from the #EU compounds this fear. #France may look to potential economic opportunities thrown up by Britain's departure, but geopolitically it is a different story. The UK's withdrawal will weaken #France, and further empower #Germany. [3/16]
During the 1990s, #France accepted #Germany's role in directing #EU economic integration. Paris agreed to this because it still believed that it had the means - as a nuclear weapons state - to push the direction of EU policy when its interests were directly at stake... [4/16]
However, since the 2010s, even #France's ability to shape #EU policy - even security policy - has gone awry. Partly, this is because EU enlargement to Eastern Europe drew the EU's focus to the East, just as #Russia began to re-emerge as a strategic adversary. [5/16]
#Germany was strengthened as Eastern Europe flocked to it, weakening #France. Paris was also hemmed-in by its military drawdown, domestic extremism, and the growth in German defence spending - now exceeding France's by US$3 billion! https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/pdf_2019_06/20190625_PR2019-069-EN.pdf [6/16]
The recent growth of #German power over #EU strategic policy has been apparent in the way that its vision of #PESCO - an 'inclusive vision' - prevailed over #France's more 'exclusive' perspective. French influence has been declining both economically and strategically... [7/16]
Mr Macron know this. He is not the great pro- #EU integrationist some initially saw him as. In his famous speech at Sorbonne University in 2017, he was not promoting EU unity for its own sake. Rather, he was outlining a plan to re-assert French leadership of the EU. [8/16]
Initially, Mr Macron thought he could gain the support of economically dissatisfied southern European nations by re-aligning #EU fiscal and economic policy. He failed: #Germany simply dismissed his ideas, while the Southern Europeans were too divided to unite behind him. [9/16]
Then he tried to reassert French leadership over #EU strategic policy. That also failed because of #German dominance. Equally, #US, #UK and German influence in #NATO (and Eastern European interests) prevented him from using that framework instead... [10/16]
Now Mr Macron is trying to shift the focus: 1. Away from #Germany and Eastern #Europe, towards the #Mediterranean and #Africa; 2. From the #EU, towards new strategic forums, led by #France; 3. And towards new partners, particularly the #UK, #US and #Russia. [11/16]
Here, his recent comments to @TheEconomist may have been misunderstood. While clumsy, they may not have been targeted at #NATO, but #Germany - by reminding Eastern Europeans how powerless Berlin would be in the event of a geopolitical emergency... https://www.economist.com/europe/2019/11/07/emmanuel-macron-warns-europe-nato-is-becoming-brain-dead [12/16]
This is why Mr Macron is now looking beyond #Germany and the #EU framework - notice how he talks increasingly of 'European sovereignty', as opposed to 'EU sovereignty' - and towards new groupings, such as the 'European Intervention Initiative'... [13/16]
Indeed, the #US and #UK are central to his vision; he understands their autonomy. This is why he befriended Mr Trump and has done everything in his power to include the UK in his strategic designs, not least the European Intervention Initiative... https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/11/why-macron-changed-his-tune-on-boris/ [14/16]
