1. Legally speaking, all MS are required to nominate an EU Commissioner (2013 EU decision). Failure to do so means Commission cd launch an infringement procedure. But will it?
2. When 31 Oct was still #Brexit deadline, EU27 were willing to turn a blind eye. No point nominating a UK Commissioner only for them to step down before @vonderleyen 's commission starts later this year. More trouble than it's worth for UK & EU.
3. But new Brexit deadline changes this: what if Article 50 is extended AGAIN? Big headache if new Commission has already started. Absence of UK Commissioner is tricky to justify.
4. But EU's insistence not because EU27 are being law-abiding or institutionally-savvy: it's because they don't want to set a precedent. What if, in future, an EU country nominates someone the other EU26 don't like? If you find an exception for UK, surely you could do so again...
5. MS, in particular smaller ones, are worried about being sidelined/pressured in future.
6. So EU now has two options: Go ahead with @vonderleyen commission & launch infringement procedure; or delay @vonderleyen commission until 1 Feb where there is more Brexit clarity. I think they will opt for latter.
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