THREAD

The world is still falling short on climate and CO2 will continue to rise for decades, despite "profound shifts" in the energy system, says @IEA World Energy Outlook.

My in-depth coverage for @CarbonBrief

https://www.carbonbrief.org/profound-shifts-underway-in-energy-system-says-iea-world-energy-outlook

As usual, the outlook revolves around three scenarios ("not forecasts") that show consequences if:

* govt policies & plans are met ("STEPS")
* warming is to be limited to 1.65C ("SDS")
* govts renege on plans & fall back on existing laws ("CPS")

https://www.carbonbrief.org/profound-shifts-underway-in-energy-system-says-iea-world-energy-outlook

IEA oultook says stated govt plans & policies, if fulfilled, would leave CO2 emissions rising for decades & warming upwards of 2.7C this century (hard to say exactly as STEPS ends in 2040).

Its SDS (IEA says "fully in line with Paris") would see 1.65C…

https://www.carbonbrief.org/profound-shifts-underway-in-energy-system-says-iea-world-energy-outlook

A closer look at the IEA outlook's central STEPS pathway shows the reason for ever-rising CO2:

* Renewables meet half of rising demand
* But gas meets another third
* Oil rises slowly then levels off
* And coal hits a plateau

https://www.carbonbrief.org/profound-shifts-underway-in-energy-system-says-iea-world-energy-outlook

The IEA's central scenario (STEPS) does show that "profound shifts" are underway, with demand growth easing & renewables starting to dominate…

…but it's all a long way from the below-2C SDS, where demand & fossil fuel use declines, esp coal

https://www.carbonbrief.org/profound-shifts-underway-in-energy-system-says-iea-world-energy-outlook

In SDS half world's current coal plants retire by 2040, inc 98% in Europe & 88% in the US (!)

Remaining capacity mostly only survives if it is "repurposed" to run minimal hrs in support of cheaper renewables or "retrofit" with (costly) CCS

https://www.carbonbrief.org/profound-shifts-underway-in-energy-system-says-iea-world-energy-outlook

A closer look at emissions in IEA World Energy Outlook shows its SDS ("fully in line with Paris") has higher CO2 than most IPCC 1.5C pathways w "low or no overshoot".

IEA says it's "on course" for zero by 2070 – it doesn't give details – & 1.65C warming.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/profound-shifts-underway-in-energy-system-says-iea-world-energy-outlook

(I'll be taking a closer look at the SDS vs IPCC pathways in a subsequent article. Thanks to the team at @iea for making data available and to @JoeriRogelj for help getting to grip with the SR15 database!)

The 2019 World Energy Outlook has dramatically revised up its central scenario for renewable electricity growth to 2040

+23% solar
+11% wind

(It says down to a combination of eg new offshore wind auctions, more solar support in China & etc)

https://www.carbonbrief.org/profound-shifts-underway-in-energy-system-says-iea-world-energy-outlook

(Haven't nailed why this is – suggestions welcome – but this extra generation from renewables is almost all absorbed by higher electricity demand, rather than reduced output from other fuels…I think maybe it's just compounded higher base yr demand?)

https://www.carbonbrief.org/profound-shifts-underway-in-energy-system-says-iea-world-energy-outlook

Yet again, the IEA World Energy Outlook has revised its solar capacity growth figures upwards.

As ever, it mainly puts this down to improved policy conditions rather than overestimated costs.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/profound-shifts-underway-in-energy-system-says-iea-world-energy-outlook

You can catch my in-depth coverage of the World Energy Outlook here:

(NB I have not yet added all of the charts in my thread, above…I'll include those over the course of this morning but this thread offers a sneak preview :-) https://www.carbonbrief.org/profound-shifts-underway-in-energy-system-says-iea-world-energy-outlook