Short thread. The protest movement is not getting to the heart of HK’s value to CCP. It’s principal and probably only real value is as a capital markets hub. Chinese companies raise the overwhelming majority of their offshore debt in HK. They raise they overwhelming majority...1/

of their offshore equity in HK. The debt is largely raised in dollars / HKDs and is one of the principal means by which the regime - which is the majority shareholder in almost all of these companies - raises USD financing. HK is not replaceable in that sense. They can’t...2/

just turn up in London or NY and list their companies. The listing rules are different. The investor base is different. HK is not replaceable at moment. So what does that mean? It means that the principal means by which the protest movement attacks the Hong Kong and CCP...3/

regime is to attack its value as a financial hub. So tactically what does that mean? 1. Hong Kong Exchange - that’s where the equity is listed. If HKEX is inoperable then they can’t issue the equity. HKEX also runs the HK Futures Exchange - where OTC and On-Exchange...4/

Derivatives are traded. It also runs the trading for bonds and equities into China. If any or all of these infrastructures were blocked then the market would grind to a halt. This would have huge and real costs for China. 2. HKMA - if HKMA is unable to operate then it’d put...5/

real pressure on the peg. Move out of HKDs into USDs. 3. International Investors / Index Providers - campaigns of disinvestment into China - and HK-listed Chinese companies. Target MSCI, FTSE Russell - all of these enablers of capital into China. Every single dollar that...6/

goes into HK and China funds these regimes. 4. If you’ve got an MPF fund - move out of anything that holds HK or CN assets - or as much as possible. The only way they’ll truly hurt is if the protestors break the value that HK gives to both the HK and CN elites. ENDS