My new @FikraForum piece on the major risks that the U.S. govt should accept in order to support the legitimate demands of the next generation of Iraqis, get on the right side of history and back the winning horse https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/fikraforum/view/u.s.-interests-and-the-unsustainable-status-quo-in-iraq

The US leadership is faced with a quandary - what should and shouldn’t the US do to help? How can we “do no harm”?This piece provides my thoughts on these conundrums.

First step is to recognize that the status quo is unsustainable and only benefits a narrow class of bloodsuckers who are going to drain Iraq of any remaining nutrition up til the moment of state failure. This is asset-stripping. Change is needed.

Here's what I think we should do in Iraq.
1) Side with new generation and hawza.
2) Support orderly, non-violent change that culminates in a new election code and monitored elections.
3) Apply Global Magnitsky sanctions to senior officials until Iraqi govt punishes the killers.

This is a high-stakes call, but Iraq’s ongoing protests also represent a unique opportunity. This is the first time mass protests have been launched by individual young Iraqis, not by Islamist demagogues who are themselves part of the problem. It is worth making a stand.

How does supporting positive change in Iraq serve U.S. interests? Well, it gives us an Iraq that can resist outside pressure, which does not need regular infusions of U.S. blood and treasure, and which validates our vision that Iraqis want and value democratic choice.

It's time to decide what poses the greatest risk to a sovereign, stable, and democratic Iraq. Is it ISIS? No, not by any measure. The corrupt elite, kept in place by Iran, is the greatest threat to Iraq and to U.S. interests there. So let's not accept any cost just to fight ISIS

The corrupt elite will allow the collapse of Iraq, and make any concession whatsoever to Iran's Rev Guard in order to extend the elite's survival for a few more years. The U.S. already lost this elite years ago: there is nothing more to lose with them.

The U.S. cares a huge amount about defeating ISIS, but Iran's shadow state cannot exist in parallel with a successful counter-ISIS strategy. Iran's proxies are chipping away at the coalition’s ability to help Iraq to fight IS by banning U.S. advisors and drones from operations.

Consider that Iran and its allies are now killing twice as many Iraqis as the Islamic State kills each month. Iraq Body Count says 151 deaths in Sept, mostly by ISIS. Iraqi High Commission for Human Rights suggests double that number killed in protests, mostly by Iran's militias.

If the U.S. is worried about ISIS external plotting, consider this: is ISIS the one firing long-range drones at Gulf oil targets from Iraq? No, that's Iran's militias in Iraq. And the best defense for these terrorist plotters is keeping the current elite & preventing change.

Iraqi protestors and Sistani have become increasingly candid that the greatest threat to Iraq is now Iran and its allies within Iraq’s corrupt political elite. The U.S. State Dept and Department of Defense should also accept this assessment and build our policy around it.

Tehran can send Iranian generals to order Iraqi repression of Iraqi youth. Iran can oversee the killing of hundreds of Iraqi civilians with impunity, knowing Iraqi government investigations will protect the guilty. This is now crystal clear to many Iraqis.

Iran is a status quo power, with everything to lose. They can count on Iraq's corrupt elite to reach out for help. Iran is likely to get more powerful in the Iraqi system as the Iraqi elite loses all legitimacy and circles the drain for the next months, years or decades

If Iran is openly defending the corrupt elite, this opens up significant opportunities for the United States to align with the new generation of Iraqis and with centrist Shiites within the religious establishment. The United States should not be a status quo player in Iraq.

If any scenario is likely to result in a system-wide circling of the wagons in Iran’s favor, it is the risk of anarchy and unclear path of political succession. The Iraqi political and religious establishment abhor chaos. So the US must back orderly change with a clear process.

Leaderless protests are cool and all, but every friend of Iraq should hope and encourage protestors to find a spokesperson and a simple structure and process. Chaos won't win.

The US should back peaceful change. Iran-backed militias have strong advantages if the protests keep getting more violent. Rampages will erode the moral high ground of the protests. Support from Sistani and the international community will wane. Rage won't win.

The United States should strongly back fair elections, whenever they happen, whether in 2020 or 2022. Arbitrary deadlines are a disease in Iraqi politics and are less important than doing it right: here's why...

So rushing it won't win either. Yet while the US should not pursue arbitrary deadlines, it should strongly back the basic premise of a new electoral law, political parties law, and effective international observation of the next elections. The int'l community should aim high.

Pick the second half of this thread up here https://twitter.com/Mikeknightsiraq/status/1194439820111683584 ... Twitter/me seem to have lost the thread, literally ...