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Another THREAD, this one on a topic of growing debate: The cost, and
future, of the post-war, “rule-based order” (RBO). Lots of criticism
these days: The RBO got us into Iraq! It’s distilled American exceptionalism! Evil neoliberal globalism! Not really. Three points: 1/14
future, of the post-war, “rule-based order” (RBO). Lots of criticism
these days: The RBO got us into Iraq! It’s distilled American exceptionalism! Evil neoliberal globalism! Not really. Three points: 1/14
2/14 First point: An RBO is NOT synonymous with US over-stretch, hegemony, foolish wars. THEY ARE TWO DIFFERENT THINGS. You can subscribe to a collective order and not fight dumb wars. Way too much conflating of "order" and "interventionism" out there these days
3/14 In fact a functioning multilateral RBO ought to reduce US over-commitment: Help deter wars, get others to take preventive action, stabilize countries etc. It’s a fantasy to imagine the world will leave the US alone; we need collective mechanisms to help manage it
4/14 Second point: An RBO is not even the same thing as a “liberal” order. Post-war order was not (fully) liberal at the start. It was based on economic order + non-aggression norm, and rhetoric + very halfway conventions on freedom + democracy
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2018-08-07/real-history-liberal-order?
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2018-08-07/real-history-liberal-order?
5/14 While there was moralistic language from the start, true liberal interventionism came later. The two foundations in '45—the seeds of a stable int’l economic order and an imperfect, oft-broken, but still influential ban on territorial aggression—are real base of post-war RBO
6/14 Example: The global economic order of trade treaties, WTO rules, central bank ties, financial systems etc is a main pillar of the RBO. It boosts stability and efficiency, avoids 1930s spirals. Specific trade debates aside, a rule-based economic order is a really good idea
7/14 Plus now in areas like climate + cyber, we need more norms and rules, not less. Agreements on climate are part of an RBO--and coordination like that is more likely in a context where states self-interestedly pursue their goals in part via shared rules & institutions
8/14 So: There’s absolutely no reason US support for an RBO has to include wars like Iraq, Libya, even Afghanistan. Those are wars of choice, not required by some rule-bound straightjacket. In fact, most believe Iraq & Libya broke, not fulfilled, the int’l legal norms of the RBO
9/14 You can have your friendly neighborhood RBO with many useful rules while still restraining US misadventures and steering clear of over-extension. Indeed, we sort of have to: China, Russia + others are sick & tired of US wars and demand a vision of the RBO w/o them
10/14 Third point: The US benefits directly & materially from the RBO. Economic benefits from position at hub of networks, military value from allies (even those who free-ride a bit), stable investment areas for US business, etc.
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2226.html
via @RANDCorporation
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2226.html
via @RANDCorporation
11/14 So bottom line: Best option for US role is a more humble foreign policy supported by, and in moderate support of, a shared, rule-based order built around alliances and coalitions with value-sharing democracies + some others—w/ liberal interventions firmly constrained
12/14 But don't throw RBO out w/bathwater of needless wars. In competition with China, leading such a network is our chief competitive advantage. It creates a world safer for America and brings direct benefits to Americans. We just need to enforce and promote it prudently
13/14 And again: as recent events show: We NEED rules/norms + coordination to tamp down the troubles that call forth our interventions. Anyone who wants US to intervene less should crave, not scorn, a functioning set of multilateral coalitions, processes, rules, and norms
14/14 The worst of all worlds is US disengagement combined with collapse of the RBO—which is precisely the experiment we are now running, Jenga block by Jenga block. Iran and N. Korea may be gearing up to show how the decline of rules & norms means more, not less, foreign wars.
