THREAD: Given that we can't change what's happened in Bolivia, a question that deeply worries me: at this point, what agreement might be acceptable to both the MAS and the opposition in the legislature, and to social movements and supporters of each side in the streets? [1/8]
As present events are demonstrating, Bolivia is extremely divided. The universe of arrangements that might be an acceptable way forward to all actors is likely to be very small. The OAS is calling for the constitutional succession of power in this situation. [2/8]
This leads to the 2nd VP of the Senate, Janine Añez, which appears unacceptable to the MAS and supporters in streets. They were chanting for her resignation before the session failed to meet quorum. Evo congratulated the MAS for defending democracy by not taking its seats. [3/8]
The international community also called for new elections ASAP. But Evo’s offer to comply did not appear to be credible for the opposition just a few days ago. So, new elections aren’t enough - but rather, new elections without the participation of Evo, I assume? [4/8]
Would the MAS agree to that now? Who could even run? What pair of candidates could possibly fill the shoes of Morales and Garcia Línera at this point? Who would social movements coalesce around? (So many questions!) [5/8]
I don’t see an obvious way forward and that concerns me for a number of reasons. This power vacuum is extremely dangerous. The COB has given lawmakers 24 hours to reestablish order before they go on strike. Violence could easily continue to escalate. [6/8]
Morales and the MAS are also denouncing racism. There are calls to respect the wiphala, which was burned, and the problem is this isn’t only a MAS symbol, but one of indigeneity, diversity, and the plurinational state. A lot is at stake if conflict is framed in this way. [7/8]
And perhaps the most terrible, looming possibility: if this can’t be resolved by civilian politicians and the 2009 Constitution, if there is no acceptable agreement – what then? Civil war? Or the military deciding to take over power? Surely even more of a mess. [8/8]
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