GW12 Lessons Learnt – top 10 take aways on players, teams and all things FPL.

A {THREAD}

#FPL #fplcommunity

It was another week of very few clean sheets in the Premier League – a total of 4 and there were also only 4 in both GW11 and GW10. There have been 59 clean sheets in total so far this season, an average of 4.9 per gameweek…

…throughout the 2018/19 season there were a total of 207 clean sheets, leading to an average of 5.45 per gameweek. This season is consistently now producing less clean sheets; focusing on defenders who are likely to get attacking returns has perhaps become more important.

Marcus Rashford had the most shots of any player this GW (7 – joint with Son) and was unlucky not to get more than one goal and return more than 5 points. On a different day he could have scored 3 or 4 and missed several big chances…

…as @bigmanbakar has outlined, United’s attack perform much better when Martial is in the team and this is the case for Rashford particularly. GWs 7-9 (no Martial) 5 shots and 1 big chance. GWs 10-12 (with Martial) 14 shots and 5 big chances. 13% ownership = a real differential.

Despite conceding the Everton defence is now throwing up some improved statistics. In the last three GWs they have only conceded 17 shots – the fewest in the PL and 9 less than the next best teams (Man City, Leicester – 26). Norwich at home next before a tough run-in starts.

Matt Doherty had the most penalty box touches of any defender this GW (8) and two goal attempts. Seems to have cemented his spot behind Traore on the right hand side of the Wolves attack and they consistently combined well against Villa…

…FPL fan favourite John Lundstram had the joint most goal attempts of all defenders (4 – alongside Willems, Mina and Walker) and was unlucky not to score with an effort off the post. He was also the most advanced of all Sheff Utd players based on average game position.

Many are ditching KdB after 1 return in 5 GWs. Even playing Liverpool away he still provided the most crosses of any MID (13) & created 3 chances. However his shots have reduced recently & over the last 6 GWs he hasn’t had one shot on target – assists may be the best hope now.

The Chelsea defence again proved they are a different proposition at home compared to away. And unlike their attacking form, they are proving to be significantly stronger at home. Their expected goals conceded (xGC) at home is 3.69 (5 conceded)…

…away from home xGC is three times greater at 9.78 (and 12 goals conceded). 24 shots on target conceded away, just 10 at home. The return of Kante also enhances chances of clean sheets (maybe to the detriment of attack if Jorginho is less likely to play?).

Chris Wood had the most shots in the box (5), big chances (4) and shots on target (4) of any player this GW. Grabbing another goal and at just 0.9% ownership, Wood (6.2m) could be a decent differential option with his next two fixtures Watford away and Palace at home.

Leicester now top the @ffscout fixture ticker for the best fixtures over the next 5 GWs. Liverpool are second, as they embark on a strong run before their blank GW18. Despite playing United next, Sheff Utd are third, ahead of fixtures which are very good until City away in GW20

Everton had the most shots (24) of all teams against Southampton but only managed to get 5 of these on target. 19 were inside the box, showing shooting accuracy is a real problem at present. Michael Keane was the only Everton outfield player (including subs) not to have a shot.

Selected forwards for xG - expected goals (and total goal attempts in brackets) in GW12:

Connolly – 0.13 (1)
C Wilson – 0.09 (1)
Maupay – 0.04 (1)
Haller – 0.03 (1)
Aubameyang – 0.12 (1)

Thanks for reading!
Enjoy the FPL break for the next 10 days…