THREAD:  

Executive Committee of #Ethiopia's troubled 4-party ruling front will meet soon and focus on PM Abiy-backed plan to merge regional constituent parties into single national organisation that would include currently affiliated ruling parties of 5 other regions 

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Look out for @CrisisGroup publication soon analysing Ethiopia’s volatile transition including efforts to transform the EPRDF, which contains risks
 
The thread is my understanding of where nascent plans have got to, with a smattering of analysis 

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/14th_Congress_of_the_League_of_Communists_of_Yugoslavia

Ideas involve conversion of regional parties into regional chapters of new org, perhaps named Prosperity Party (PP).

Aim is to streamline decision-making so executive organs of national party become more important than regional components. 

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Another critical element to keep in mind here is recent progress towards Oromo opposition power-sharing deal, which would then prepare to cooperate in elections, with relations to be worked out over time with PP and its Oromia chapter, depending on how that process goes. 

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Potential key change of PP structure is equivalent of EPRDF Central Committee (CC) would be selected by national PP membership. Would not be composed of delegates from regional party’s CC, as occurs now. In turn, new PP ‘CC’ would select a PP ‘Executive’. 

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But there’s little clarity and ideas are at formative stage.

An EPRDF EC member’s version was there would be same regional delegation to national party and only major change would be move from equal voting power for 4 parties to more proportional system.

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Each chapter’s share of vote in national party could be weighted according to existing membership of regional ruling parties. This would make voting share roughly proportional to population, but also sidesteps need for a census delayed since 2017. Neat, in theory. 

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Overall idea is to ensure all regional elements have role in national political decision-making and, by reducing power of regional parties in favour of centralising, to try ensure party running the federation (for now at least…) has greater cohesion and national purpose.  

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Broad reasons to be positive about PP plan is it’d remake discredited, fractious EPRDF, while giving the PM and his Medemer ideology new electoral vehicle. It looks like Amhara ruling party’s keen, Southern EPRDF elites on board, and part of PM’s Oromia party’s backing it. 

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Merger opposed publicly by TPLF and also by Oromo powerbroker Jawar Mohammed for being first step in end to ethno-regional autonomy.   

But now, Oromo opposition coalescing around plan to challenge at ballot box any undesirable centralisation from PM’s new party. 

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Oromo oppo bloc (Daud Ibsa, KemalGelchu OLF parties, Merera/Bekele’s OFC, plus Leecho Lata group) plan to leave EPRDF to its internal reforms; instead collectively pursue Oromo interests and team-up against opponents (e.g. Ezema in urban centres) in elections when necessary 

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The bloc's confident of taking lots of Oromia’s 178 parliaments seats (547 total) and controlling Oromia council.

This may means chunks of Abiy’s party, including big names, jumping ship to oppo if PP tacks too much to center and seen as vote loser/servingAmhara interests 

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Issues to watch: If PM tries to counter that by maintaining strong ties with Oromo opposition then it would displease Amhara PP colleagues.

Hopefully there’s a middle path to be found, but proposed merger arguably sharpens big dilemma for the PM. 

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And Oromia’s not only ‘problem region’. Tricky to achieve balance between trying to stabilise federation through centralising and bringing on board e.g. Somali’s ruling party that’s challenged by ONLF, while it’s hard to see Tigray going anywhere but further into isolation. 

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Additionally, while ‘neat’, seems leap of faith to think voting weight in new ruling party can easily be apportioned on EPRDF membership: Are there records everyone agrees on? Might some regional parties object as for some reason they don’t have many members? 

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Bear in mind this is top-down and centrally driven. How will millions of EPRDF rank and file react to it being sprung on them? Maybe they’ll embrace as only game in town, but seems like could lead to further state destabilisation, as EPRDF still runs this listing ship. 

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Procedural disputes also likely. Some claim 2018 Congress mandated Council to implement. But seems Congress only agreed discussion of merger proposals. Is another Congress needed?  

PM set on merger then May election, but if it gets bogged down, or worse, may need rethink. 

END