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1/So long-time followers know I& #39;m a bit of an obsessive about the "future of work" conversations and myths in education. Gonna elaborate a little on why, beyond this piece https://www.chalkbeat.org/posts/us/2019/11/06/xq-new-york-city-schools-future-of-work/">https://www.chalkbeat.org/posts/us/...
2/First these "future of work" discussions and claims are absolutelyu00a0ubiquitous in education. It& #39;s impossible to miss.
3/Some of the claims are "crazy, wild-ass guesses" as I& #39;ve documented https://www.chalkbeat.org/posts/us/2019/11/06/xq-new-york-city-schools-future-of-work/">https://www.chalkbeat.org/posts/us/... (Note: XQ did remove a YouTube video with the made-up 65% stat when I alerted them to it.)
4/But holding aside the more outlandish predictions, what about the simple idea that the economy is changing at a rapid clip? Well let& #39;s look at the evidence...
5/Isn& #39;t there more technological innovation? Not as far as economists can tell u2014 productivity growth, which should capture that, has slowed since 2000, rather than increased https://brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2019/04/30/irrational-exuberance-aside-growth-is-slowing/">https://brookings.edu/blog/up-f...
6/Aren& #39;t people changing jobs more frequently? Nope. The opposite. https://eig.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Dynamism-in-Retreat-A.pdf">https://eig.org/wp-conten...
7/Well at the least, aren& #39;t millennials changing jobs more? Nope. The opposite. (People often confuse an age effect with a generational effect.) https://www.chalkbeat.org/posts/us/2019/11/06/xq-new-york-city-schools-future-of-work/">https://www.chalkbeat.org/posts/us/...
8/Aren& #39;t there more tech start up? Actually there are feweru00a0start ups.u00a0 https://eig.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Dynamism-in-Retreat-A.pdf">https://eig.org/wp-conten...
9/Aren& #39;t the types of jobs that people have changing at a rapid rate? Sure, it& #39;s changing, but at a *slower*u00a0rater than previous decades.u00a0 https://www.clevelandfed.org/en/newsroom-and-events/publications/economic-commentary/2019-economic-commentaries/ec-201909-changes-in-us-occupational-structure.aspx">https://www.clevelandfed.org/en/newsro...
10/Ok, but there& #39;s definitely been a rapid rise in the gig economy ... right? Nope. There may (or may not) have been a small rise, but previous estimates were likely over-stated. u00a0 https://www.epi.org/publication/nonstandard-work-arrangements-and-older-americans-2005-2017/u00a0+u00a0https://www.epi.org/publicati... href=" https://www.nber.org/papers/w25425 ">https://www.nber.org/papers/w2...
https://www.nber.org/papers/w2..." title="10/Ok, but there& #39;s definitely been a rapid rise in the gig economy ... right? Nope. There may (or may not) have been a small rise, but previous estimates were likely over-stated. u00a0 https://www.epi.org/publicati... href=" https://www.nber.org/papers/w25425 ">https://www.nber.org/papers/w2...">
https://www.nber.org/papers/w2..." title="10/Ok, but there& #39;s definitely been a rapid rise in the gig economy ... right? Nope. There may (or may not) have been a small rise, but previous estimates were likely over-stated. u00a0 https://www.epi.org/publicati... href=" https://www.nber.org/papers/w25425 ">https://www.nber.org/papers/w2...">
11/So why does all of this matter? To be clear I& #39;m not saying the economy isn& #39;t changing (it certainly is in some ways),u00a0or that we should be confident that innovation and automationu00a0won& #39;t increase in the future or that schools shouldn& #39;t change.
12/But at the least we should have a fact-based discussion on this. Right now for instance, NYC teachers interested in starting news schools are still being led to a resource that offers a demonstrably misleading claimu00a0 https://newyork.xqsuperschool.org"> https://newyork.xqsuperschool.org ---> https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5d8cfd6e2626e64bdc70c85d/t/5d93a559a6347f3e8cfcb7b9/1569957239598/XQ_KnowledgeModules_Students%2Bin%2Bthe%2B21st%2BCentury.pdf">https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5d...
13/13 And I think some reflection is in order for education futurists: Why do a number of these misleading claims continue to crop up over and over again? And what about all of the countervailing evidence? For more: https://www.chalkbeat.org/posts/us/2019/11/06/xq-new-york-city-schools-future-of-work/">https://www.chalkbeat.org/posts/us/...
14/13 A correction on this Tweet (flagged to me by XQ& #39;s communications director): XQ removed a YouTube video claiming that 85% of the jobs of 2030 had not been invented yet (not 65%) https://twitter.com/matt_barnum/status/1192848075733241858">https://twitter.com/matt_barn...
15/13 Check out these screenshots to follow the citation trail (and see this valuable pieceu00a0 #f320ac370ec0">https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereknewton/2018/12/28/the-myth-of-jobs-that-dont-exist-yet/ #f320ac370ec0).">https://www.forbes.com/sites/der... I contend that this figure was for all intents and purposes made up u2014 but it is important to note that XQ did a cite source for this, just not a credible one.
