Read on Twitter
In the past few days, I& #39;ve highlighted how China& #39;s #BeltandRoad Initiative (BRI) has been a trojan horse since 2013 for securing critical geopolitical footprints and resources throughout Eurasia, Africa, and South America.
Three days ago, the US finally responded.
Thread.
Three days ago, the US finally responded.
Thread.
Prerequisite:
This thread introducing BRI and @seanmcfate& #39;s critical concept of #durabledisorder from "The New Rules of War."
2/ https://twitter.com/man_integrated/status/1191754563310833664">https://twitter.com/man_integ...
This thread introducing BRI and @seanmcfate& #39;s critical concept of #durabledisorder from "The New Rules of War."
2/ https://twitter.com/man_integrated/status/1191754563310833664">https://twitter.com/man_integ...
There are two key distinctions between BRI and the US& #39; new Blue Dot Network:
1. The US project is explicitly promoting transparent lending practices that favor the prime stakeholder
2. This is a savvy play by @realDonaldTrump, deeper than building infrastructure-as-leverage
3/
1. The US project is explicitly promoting transparent lending practices that favor the prime stakeholder
2. This is a savvy play by @realDonaldTrump, deeper than building infrastructure-as-leverage
3/
China& #39;s BRI is notoriously opaque and predatory in its lending practices to the stakeholder nations.
Often, the terms of default on the aggressive repayment schedules requires turning over the asset to a "private" Chinese operator.
4/
Often, the terms of default on the aggressive repayment schedules requires turning over the asset to a "private" Chinese operator.
4/
However, it is widely-known that many large Chinese firms involved in BRI are essentially (or explicitly) SOE& #39;s, or state-owned private enterprises.
In the maritime industry, a good example is the megaconglomerate COSCO, which builds and operates ocean vessels and ports.
5/
In the maritime industry, a good example is the megaconglomerate COSCO, which builds and operates ocean vessels and ports.
5/
This article by @EpochTimes is a useful explanation and example of the debt traps hidden with BRI& #39;s promises of prosperity for Kenya, and its critical gateway port of Mombasa.
Note, this is exactly how China acquired a Sri Lankan port in 2017.
6/ https://www.theepochtimes.com/kenya-faces-losing-key-port-to-china-over-railway-loan_2771232.html">https://www.theepochtimes.com/kenya-fac...
Note, this is exactly how China acquired a Sri Lankan port in 2017.
6/ https://www.theepochtimes.com/kenya-faces-losing-key-port-to-china-over-railway-loan_2771232.html">https://www.theepochtimes.com/kenya-fac...
Without belaboring the point, it is obvious by now that China, along with its allies such as Russia, is making their sphere smaller by building overland and on-water infrastructure to secure the economic and military cooperation of the many nations of the Eastern Hemisphere.
7/
7/
For the US to respond in an effective manner to a firmly-established project like BRI, it must offer a better deal for allies and partner nations.
It must also shake the century of perception of overt colonialist behaviors of previous forays into geopolitics.
8/
It must also shake the century of perception of overt colonialist behaviors of previous forays into geopolitics.
8/
First, is assuring the partner nation that US interests are benign, if not wholly beneficent.
US investment must not be zero-sum, as BRI increasingly is. In fact, it must weigh materially in the partner nations& #39; favor.
Transparency and favorable terms assure this objective.
9/
US investment must not be zero-sum, as BRI increasingly is. In fact, it must weigh materially in the partner nations& #39; favor.
Transparency and favorable terms assure this objective.
9/
Second, the US must shift the partner nations& #39; narrative from:
"I need this infrastructure at ANY cost."
to
"I need a higher-quality infrastructure at the RIGHT cost."
In essence, paint BRI as a payday loan option, with Blue Dot being a favorable low-APR loan.
10/
"I need this infrastructure at ANY cost."
to
"I need a higher-quality infrastructure at the RIGHT cost."
In essence, paint BRI as a payday loan option, with Blue Dot being a favorable low-APR loan.
10/
Besides the corruption and debt traps, BRI has increasingly become known for the shoddy quality of the work being performed by Chinese firms.
But, the nations accepted it as the price of having only one choice.
Blue Dot is shooting for that gap.
11/ https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3014214/chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-criticised-poor-standards-and">https://www.scmp.com/news/chin...
But, the nations accepted it as the price of having only one choice.
Blue Dot is shooting for that gap.
11/ https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3014214/chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-criticised-poor-standards-and">https://www.scmp.com/news/chin...
Note the language of the Blue Dot release:
"Global trust standards" is used three times, with "trusted" used as an adjective for infrastructure twice more.
This is narrative warfare at work.
"China will build it...poorly. We& #39;re creating the paradigm to guarantee quality."
12/
"Global trust standards" is used three times, with "trusted" used as an adjective for infrastructure twice more.
This is narrative warfare at work.
"China will build it...poorly. We& #39;re creating the paradigm to guarantee quality."
12/
This narrative shift cuts right to the heart of China& #39;s efforts to shed its reputation as a low-cost, high-volume producer of intellectually-infringed products.
The US is encouraging nations to think better of themselves than to jump into bed with China.
13/
The US is encouraging nations to think better of themselves than to jump into bed with China.
13/
Most importantly, the US is not forcing this narrative down nations& #39; throats.
It& #39;s the natural conclusion they will arrive at once the frame of "poor quality, debt traps, human rights abuses" is put in place.
The new frame shifts the Overton Window of what is tolerable.
14/
It& #39;s the natural conclusion they will arrive at once the frame of "poor quality, debt traps, human rights abuses" is put in place.
The new frame shifts the Overton Window of what is tolerable.
14/
This is the power of narrative in the age of #durabledisorder.
Decentralized communication platforms at global scale are allowing individuals and communities to make up their own minds, and push bottom-up change accordingly.
It is @ScottAdamsSays-style persuasion at work.
15/
Decentralized communication platforms at global scale are allowing individuals and communities to make up their own minds, and push bottom-up change accordingly.
It is @ScottAdamsSays-style persuasion at work.
15/
This is the peculiar genius of a man like President Trump.
For all of his flaws, he understands the power of narrative as only a showman can.
And he understands that the moment a person decides to turn narrative into action, it is logistics that enables it.
16/
For all of his flaws, he understands the power of narrative as only a showman can.
And he understands that the moment a person decides to turn narrative into action, it is logistics that enables it.
16/
Every geopolitical action taken is an act of narrative warfare.
This is especially true when the nations in question signal an intent to shift billions of dollars in trade flow through energy and logistics infrastructure investments.
The media lies. The assets can& #39;t.
17/
This is especially true when the nations in question signal an intent to shift billions of dollars in trade flow through energy and logistics infrastructure investments.
The media lies. The assets can& #39;t.
17/
Note, the first theater targeted for Blue Dot cooperation is the Indo-Pacific region.
It is no coincidence the announcement was made by US officials in Thailand at an economics/business summit...
The US is signaling its intent to stand firm in China& #39;s backyard.
18/
It is no coincidence the announcement was made by US officials in Thailand at an economics/business summit...
The US is signaling its intent to stand firm in China& #39;s backyard.
18/
Since the inception of the US/China trade war, US importers have been switching their sourcing from China to factories in Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, and other SE Asian nations.
Chinese firms are scrambling to rapidly build new factories in these nations.
19/
Chinese firms are scrambling to rapidly build new factories in these nations.
19/
This has caused a mass realignment in logistics traffic, with new dollars flowing into those economies.
The second-order effect is a new narrative of US-led economic empowerment for countries China has been courting aggressively.
This, too, was part of the plan.
20/
The second-order effect is a new narrative of US-led economic empowerment for countries China has been courting aggressively.
This, too, was part of the plan.
20/
When you combine these two narratives - robust US-led global quality standards for critical infrastructure, and increased economic engagement at the trade level - the message suddenly tilts rapidly towards China being the subtle aggressor.
21/
21/
It is a canny counterplay to BRI and Chinese economic hegemony in the region, and will serve as a useful model for other potential initiatives in Central/South America, Africa, and parts of the Middle East and Europe.
Watch the chokepoints.
22/
Watch the chokepoints.
22/
For an extremely-interesting primer on how US engagement and interests can be enhanced through infrastructure and economic cooperation, check out this white paper by the brilliant @BPattySSG at @SecStudiesGrp.
CC: @JimHansonDC
@davereaboi
https://securitystudies.org/a-new-way-forward-in-the-middle-east/
23/">https://securitystudies.org/a-new-way...
CC: @JimHansonDC
@davereaboi
https://securitystudies.org/a-new-way-forward-in-the-middle-east/
23/">https://securitystudies.org/a-new-way...
