PSEPHOLOGY CORNER 2: The Remain Alliance?

The Lib Dems , Greens and Plaid have entered into the biggest piece of electoral pact since the SDP/Liberal alliance.

But how much difference might it make? (Thread)

There a few seats on the list they’ve published where the result is close enough *and* one of the parties is second *and* one of the other parties stood last time where this alliance could obviously make a difference. Cheltenham, for example. The Lib Dem’s are only 2,500 away.

The Greens didn’t even get 2% of the vote but in a tight contest, every vote helps. Of course, it doesn’t mean all 943 votes will go to the Libs, indeed, greens are generally more likely to favour Corbyn’s Lab as a second preference - but it’s got to be a good thing in general.

In other seats like Twickenham, where instinctively you’d think the Greens standing down for the Lib Dems might be helpful, in fact they didn’t stand last time anyway.

Admittedly in Twick they did in 2015 with 2000 votes, so theoretically at least, it’s useful they don’t do so again.

Likewise, in Bath, Green vote was squeezed a lot in 2017 in any case so unlikely to make the difference. If it returned to 2015 levels might be more of a problem. But that’s unlikely given local voters likely to attach to tactical voting, even if they did stand.

So we can basically conclude that in many of these seats with a strong Remain orientation, tactical voting was taking place anyway. Other examples of this include Oxford West and Abingdon and Brighton Pavilion.

In lots of these seats, it really isn’t very useful one way or the other. Take Cheadle, the Greens haven’t stood for years (in fact, in Cheadle, they’ve *never* stood and it seems unlikely they would have stood this time either.

Some are safe(ish) seats for the respective parties already. Like Dwyfor Meirionnydd for Plaid.

In other seats, like Winchester, even if Greens AND Labour came in, you’d need remainer Tories to come onboard. Other seats are similar no hopers because Tories are so far ahead, like Hitchin and Harpenden or Bury St. Edmunds.

In other seats, like Cannock Chase, where the Lib Dems are standing aside for the Greens, their mutual presence is so puny that it isn’t terribly important either way.

The big problem with this is Labour’s absence, they are far too important to the Remain coalition to be ignored. But for the purposes of this, they are treated as if yielding a Lab MP is the same as a Tory one. In terms of Brexit outcomes, that’s clearly nonsensical.

In some seats, indeed in many, Labour would clearly be the party to rally around, because they have the best chance of winning, like York Outer.

Their status, as a missing piece of the puzzle distorts everything and makes much of this ineffective, or at worse, risks actively undermining remain. For example...

In seats like Bristol West or Cardiff Central, you have very solid remain MPs,they would vote as solidly remain as any LD or Green: it seems very unlikely to unseat v solid remainers Lab MPs but they may lose remainer support to the party with the Remain Alliance seal of approval

It also risks diverting the energies of local campaigners dealing with even moderately increased local remainer revanchist threat, which could be better spent on Conservative marginals.

Then there’s seats like Stroud, where a remain alliance, with Labour remain votes drained off to no hoper Green candidate, could well allow the Tories to take the seat of this wafer thin bell weather seat.

Then in seats like Southport, if you’re a remainer there’s a genuine dilemma as to whom represents best shot, for which this alliance does little. Greens standing down for Lib Dems but they have no presence anyway. Labour/Lib Dems closish second and third *shrugs*.

If they worked together, they could guarantee the seat...

Then in Warrington South. It’s possible that even if there isn’t another party to stand aside, the Remainer imprimatur prompts extra seepage to Lib Dems which lets Tories in through middle.

If guaranteeing some kind of remain outcome was only imperative, tbh in seats like this, Lib Dems should stand down...admittedly that is difficult because Lab won’t do any deals and doesn’t identify as a remain party. Nonetheless it’s easy to see how this could all backfire.

Because whatever they say, the small remain parties *are* relying on a House of Commons with lots of Lab MPs, indeed they’re being a plurality (or large second plurality) in order to realise their objectives. This strategy doesn’t seem to take any account of that.

So although there are a few seats where this effort might yield some remain benefit, the creation of a remain alliance, however loose and informal, has the potential to backfire quite drastically.

Of course, this is all based on recent actual electoral performance rather than current polling. But given that many voters, when deciding whether to or how to vote tactically make their decisions on that basis, it’s a reasonable thing to do.