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For the last 3 years the vast majority of British attention has been focused on Brexit day itself, and the withdrawal agreement. People are not paying attention to the far more important matter of a future relationship, and coping with the interim. 19/
The analogy that comes to my mind is a couple expecting their first baby, focusing entirely on the birth itself, unable to see the big picture that after the trauma and drama of childbirth come 18 years of total disruption to their previous lives. 20/20
(In case you're wondering, yes I just sat down with an expert colleague who explained all this to me over a coffee so I know what I have to do, and my head is hurting so I need to write it down. Might as well put it to good use!)
I should add that, had the UK government been looking ahead to its future relationship with the EU, it would have gone about the withdrawal phase completely differently. So many bridges have been burned, and will have to be built again from scratch. https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1182232139061960705?s=21
We know that Boris likes bridges but how many of his fantastical bridge projects has he actually seen built?
It’s interesting to see how responses fall into two camps. The majority: ohhh interesting, good to see the lengths the EU goes to for democratic scrutiny and legal correctness. A minority: ohhh interesting, good to see the lengths the EU goes to for PROTECTIONISM AND RED TAPE.
Two things to add to my thread. At the outset, once a political decision has been taken by the Commission to proceed with a new agreement, before the mandate is requested from the Council stakeholder consultation & impact assessment has to happen. Takes a while.
The other thing that does not get sufficient attention is that the UK wants a divergence agreement, not a convergence agreement. This is without precedent. Starting from a point of regulatory equivalence is irrelevant, it’s the destination that matters.
This hugely complicates several stages of the EU process: stakeholder consultation, impact assessment, securing the political mandate, THE NEGOTIATIONS, and ratification. I confidently predict it will take years. The EU has never negotiated something like this before.
When Johnson talks about a great deal on the future relationship by the end of 2020, he is lying.
