Last year I said a no-deal Brexit is the most likely outcome because it’s the path of least resistance. That’s still true and at this stage it’s even more clear why.

A short thread explaining.

In no particular order the three options are: remain, leave with a deal, no-deal. There is no majority in the Commons for any of them, but nonetheless one will come to pass.

Remaining is the least likely scenario. The government doesn’t want it, the opposition (says) it doesn’t want it, and last time we checked a slight majority of the electorate doesn’t want it. It would be political suicide for any party pursuing power to support it.

We can’t leave with a deal because the opposition won’t vote for one. They can’t endorse a “Tory deal”, even if it provides everything they claim to want. Not that they need them, but they have the votes of twenty-something ERG members too.

That leaves no-deal. It requires no majority because there are several ways the PM can use executive authority to get us there, some more legal than others.

An election probably leads to this outcome too (unless we get a hung parliament). It’s the only realistic option. Ironically the one thing that might prevent it is the success of the Brexit party (if the election is held after Oct. 31st). Ends.