Want to know the general model for how new technologies develop? A brief thread on the technology S-Curve, as illustrated by the evolution of the e-book (with a bit on Victorian fire escapes!). This model comes with lots of caveats, but is still well-supported and powerful... 1/8

The S-curve shows you how a technology's capabilities change over time, as more effort goes into them. Why this happens is complex, for a good overview of some the complexity, this classic article by Tripsas & @sarah_kaplan is a good place to start. 2/8 http://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Publication%20Files/04-039.pdf

Technologies usually start with an "Era of Ferment" where everyone knows a new tech is coming, but companies experiment with possible forms. In the case of e-books, there were lots of ideas: In-bookstore printing! Serials you paid for by the chapter! The Sony Data Discman! 3/8

(As an aside, one particularly interesting eras of ferment was the world of Victorian fire escapes - everyone knew that with higher buildings and denser cities, there needed to be a solution to escaping fires, but the method was unclear!) 4/8 https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/the-creative-and-forgotten-fire-escape-designs-of-the-1800s

Eventually, a winning technology emerges - we call this the "dominant design." Suddenly, when Amazon gets up to speed, everyone knows what an ebook is: it looks like a Kindle! It is a e-ink display, a device optimized for reading, and it is connected wireless to a book store. 5/8

Now there is a period of take-off, where companies compete around a single concept. Prices fall, capabilities increase and, one-by-one, competitors drop out as the fail to keep up, as you can see in this awesome chart by Jim Utterback, looking at 150 years of tech competition. 6

Eventually, the technology begins to mature and stagnate, either because it is too expensive to develop or inertia has set in. Instead of capability, competitors try to out market each other with various luxury tweaks and fixes: Waterproof! Better buttons! Color choices! 7/8

Finally, along comes a new technology, one that is just starting up its S-curve, that disrupts the old technology. Now, how & when this happens is a subject of vigorous academic debate currently. This article is a good summary of some of the thoughts: 8/8 http://timharford.com/2018/10/why-big-companies-squander-brilliant-ideas/

What does this mean for you, a startup? Know what phase you are in - if you are competing during the period of ferment, how will you become the dominant design? If it is during take-off, do you have the resources to ride the curve? If slowdown, how do you know you are disruptive?