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South Africa has the 6th most shopping centre space in the world!
It's also ranks among the highest levels of shopping centre supply relative to household consumption expenditure.
Overlay being "the most unequal" country in the world & you have a perfect recipe for disaster!
It's also ranks among the highest levels of shopping centre supply relative to household consumption expenditure.
Overlay being "the most unequal" country in the world & you have a perfect recipe for disaster!
Red Flag #1:
"Build it & they will come" no longer works.
SA commercial property is under severe pressure. Rental reversions are negative & vacancies are increasing.
Retailers aren't able to survive higher costs (electricity, property rates, etc). https://www.businessinsider.co.za/redefine-rentals-2019-5
"Build it & they will come" no longer works.
SA commercial property is under severe pressure. Rental reversions are negative & vacancies are increasing.
Retailers aren't able to survive higher costs (electricity, property rates, etc). https://www.businessinsider.co.za/redefine-rentals-2019-5
Red Flag #2:
Average SA consumer is R70k in debt.
Besides being heavily indebted, people have limited savings & are suffocating to survive even basic costs of living (fuel, rent, transport.. endless list).
Debt used to fund consumption expenditure makes it a vicious cycle.
Average SA consumer is R70k in debt.
Besides being heavily indebted, people have limited savings & are suffocating to survive even basic costs of living (fuel, rent, transport.. endless list).
Debt used to fund consumption expenditure makes it a vicious cycle.
Red Flag #3:
A cross-section of SA listed retailers are putting out scary earnings numbers.
Shoprite? Full year net profit down 18%
Mr. Price? Shares slipped 14% after stating the consumer "remains constrained"
Massmart? Losses expected to be close to R400m (R95m last year)
A cross-section of SA listed retailers are putting out scary earnings numbers.
Shoprite? Full year net profit down 18%
Mr. Price? Shares slipped 14% after stating the consumer "remains constrained"
Massmart? Losses expected to be close to R400m (R95m last year)
Useful Links:
https://sacsc.co.za/news/sa-has-more-than-23-million-square-metres-of-retail-space
http://www.sacommercialpropnews.co.za/
https://m.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/sa-plagued-by-personal-debt-20190506-2
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2019/05/07/africa/south-africa-elections-inequality-intl/index.html
https://www.iol.co.za/business-report/companies/massmart-profit-severely-hit-by-weak-sales-losses-30108211
https://sacsc.co.za/news/sa-has-more-than-23-million-square-metres-of-retail-space
http://www.sacommercialpropnews.co.za/
https://m.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/sa-plagued-by-personal-debt-20190506-2
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2019/05/07/africa/south-africa-elections-inequality-intl/index.html
https://www.iol.co.za/business-report/companies/massmart-profit-severely-hit-by-weak-sales-losses-30108211
In a global context - digital retail and online shopping has been cannibalising bricks & mortar retail.
Cheaper data, greater internet access & better online product offerings are catalysts.
There's also a reluctance in SA by some people to shop online due to security fears.
Cheaper data, greater internet access & better online product offerings are catalysts.
There's also a reluctance in SA by some people to shop online due to security fears.
