Thread by @ClimateBen, The Great Barrier Reef will be dead by 2029, with catastrophic consequences [...]

The Great Barrier Reef will be dead by 2029, with catastrophic consequences for all life on Earth.

[THREAD]

'Terrifying':

2°C of global warming (2029 - 2039) means the destruction of 99% of the world’s tropical reefs.

Even at 1.5°C (2023 - 2028) 70-90% will die.

Overfishing & pollutants from agriculture, which are also killing the Reef, are 'escalating'. https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/can-great-barrier-reef-survive-climate-change/

Interactive: Can the Great Barrier Reef survive climate change?

The Great Barrier Reef first saw widespread bleaching in 1998. Since then it has experienced three more mass bleaching events – a consequence of rapidly rising temperatures.

https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/can-great-barrier-reef-survive-climate-change/

Terrifying consequences.

"You like to breathe?"

85% of oxygen humans breathe comes from the Ocean - we need healthy reefs to survive.

Rippling ecosystem collapse

50% of world's coral now dead due to sea floor dredging, pollution, & emissions. http://www.businessinsider.fr/us/coral-reefs-great-barrier-reef-dying-from-bleaching-warming-2018-4

Half of the Great Barrier Reef has died since 2016 — here's what happens if all coral reefs on...

Without coral reefs, there could be a rippling ecosystem collapse in the oceans, with devastating effects on the planet.

http://www.businessinsider.fr/us/coral-reefs-great-barrier-reef-dying-from-bleaching-warming-2018-4

Will the Great Barrier Reef really be dead as early as 2029?

Yes. See this thread on likely temperature rise.

Anyway, it's not just climate:

'By 2025, ...15.7 billion plastic pieces could come into contact with coral reefs.'
https://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2011/06/13/losing-our-coral-reefs/ https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1142448244410212352?s=19

I'm probably guilty of downplaying the ecological emergency when I say 2029.

See this thread on (amongst other things) Coral Reef calamity by 2025.

https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1159581754933555202?s=19

https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1159581754933555202?s=19

'It is well known in climate science that, even if we stopped harmful emissions tomorrow, global warming would not peak for another several decades. By then, most of the Reef will be long gone.

The argument is simple...the conclusion difficult to avoid' https://independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/the-great-barrier-reef-is-doomed,10501

The uncomfortable truth: The Great Barrier Reef is doomed

The Great Barrier Reef is unlikely to survive as more than a small, sad remnant of its past glory.

https://independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/the-great-barrier-reef-is-doomed,10501

“I dread to think that it might be as soon as next year":

"The problem with a 10-year window that’s required for a decent recovery is that the chances of us having a fifth bleaching event in that time period is actually very high because of global warming" https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-20/great-barrier-reef-natures-perfect-match-is-breaking-down/10113132

Nature's perfect match is breaking down and the reef is in peril

A relationship formed millions of years ago, around the time dinosaurs first appeared on earth, between coral and algae is under strain and it's transforming the Great Barrier Reef.

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-20/great-barrier-reef-natures-perfect-match-is-breaking-down/10113132

'Irreversible damage to the Great Barrier Reef by 2030 unless immediate action is taken', marine scientists warned in 2014.

Urgent, radical action was required 35 years ago.

160 billion tonnes of CO2 emitted since 2014, and emissions are accelerating. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/article-2574664/Irreversible-damage-Great-Barrier-Reef-2030-unless-urgent-action-taken.html

Irreversible damage to Great Barrier Reef by 2030 unless action taken

Australia’s iconic heritage site is at a turning point, and coral will be destroyed ‘for hundreds if not thousands of years’ by hikes in carbon dioxide and the average global temperature, states a...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/article-2574664/Irreversible-damage-Great-Barrier-Reef-2030-unless-urgent-action-taken.html

Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, who worked on the new research paper, said it confirmed what he predicted back in 1999, when he controversially forecast the loss of reefs on the Great Barrier Reef by 2040.

His old predictions now appear to be conservative. https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/climate-change/great-barrier-reef-could-be-dead-within-20-years-australia-scientists-have-warned/news-story/e68ad45740a3239afa52d9f22b09c4a0

Barrier Reef ‘dead in 20 years’

THE Great Barrier Reef is likely to be dead within two decades, experts have warned, with climate change leading to more frequent and severe coral bleaching.

https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/climate-change/great-barrier-reef-could-be-dead-within-20-years-australia-scientists-have-warned/news-story/e68ad45740a3239afa52d9f22b09c4a0

The 2016 bleaching event was unprecedented in scale and severity:

'some of the headlines it has generated are factually incorrect or misleading...'

The wider truth: state-corporate media downplay ecological catastrophe and keep it off the front pages.
https://theconversation.com/great-barrier-reef-bleaching-stats-are-bad-enough-without-media-misreporting-58283

The opening image is from here:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/planet-oz/2016/mar/30/link-between-fossil-fuels-and-great-barrier-reef-bleaching-clear-and-incontrovertible-say-scientists#img-2

State-corporate media, **@guardian included**, are the key reason for inaction.

If the public aren't allowed to grasp the severity of the ecological crisis, they won't try to force system change:

https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1155296440371023872?s=19

Increasingly frequent marine heatwaves can lead to the almost instant death of corals, scientists working on the Great Barrier Reef have found.

These episodes of unusually high water temperatures are - like land heatwaves - associated with climate change. https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/science-environment-49255642?__twitter_impression=true

Climate change: Marine heatwaves kill coral instantly

Marine heat waves, associated with climate change, cause the rapid death of corals, research reveals.

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/science-environment-49255642?__twitter_impression=true

Back-to-back marine heat waves killed half the Great Barrier Reef in 2016 & 2017.

Extreme marine heat waves - which will be more frequent, larger, more intense, and longerlasting - are 'just around the corner'. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/01/ocean-heat-waves-pacific-s-deadly-blob-could-become-new-normal

Ocean heat waves like the Pacific’s deadly ‘Blob’ could become the new normal

Five years after massive patch of warm water appeared, scientists take stock

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/01/ocean-heat-waves-pacific-s-deadly-blob-could-become-new-normal

The Great Barrier Reef's inexorable demise appears to confirmed by official assessments:

'In decades to come they will probably still contain some corals, but ecologically speaking they will not be growing, or even functioning.' https://theconversation.com/this-situation-brings-me-to-despair-two-reef-scientists-share-their-climate-grief-123520

'This situation brings me to despair': two reef scientists share their climate grief

Few feel the pain of the Great Barrier Reef's decline more acutely than the scientists trying to save it. Ahead of a UN climate summit, two researchers write of their grief, and hope.

https://theconversation.com/this-situation-brings-me-to-despair-two-reef-scientists-share-their-climate-grief-123520

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