Putin wants Ukraine as the historic Russian breadbasket.
China SOE leases huge tracts of eastern Russia for farming.
Iran has been sanctioned into a perilous state esp with inflation.
Seriously good plan etc but everyone here still needs USD to buy food.
Beijing& #39;s aspiration to be a superpower runs aground, inter alia, on various reefs but at least one is that it cannot buy food in its own currency. Dependence on earning USD to feed yourself makes you a very large Venezuela.
The Sinologists on Twitter are often quite good but there is still this bonkers school stuck in the BRIC era that believes the CCP/Xi etal have some 20 dimensional chess/Sun Tzu plan when they are just Leninists, haunted by Lin Biao, trying to bluff & bully their way to tomorrow
For all of the American brokens go on here, hyperventilating about Trump and what have you, the US is a very old country, constitutionally, and it chuggs along regardless of who is in power. Putin + Xi live in fear of losing power & losing their people-why this is dangerous
In addition to Xi, Putin, Iran& #39;s Mullahs, one should add Erdogan in Turkey to the above as well...Not every world leader who has a false flag coup to gut his senior military ranks & replace them with hack loyalists....There is a pattern here....
Theory of Nicholas Spykman (1893–1943) of Eurasia & Rimland was far-sighted albeit could not anticipate how broad the coalition would array against a unified and Leninist PRC state in due course. Also that this would still in 2019 be a USD world & food/energy supply a key driver.
Finally!....NATO has to lift its game and note that Iran is the junior partner. Also, an example of how everyone now wants to join in the #DragonBear thread....
Along with #DragonBear we also need something for the Iranian axis https://twitter.com/GrayConnolly/status/1142777077222875137">https://twitter.com/GrayConno...
Any state that could acquire Greenland would be mad not to do so. Securing the Greenland-Iceland-UK (GIUK) Gap was one of the key NATO tasks in the Cold War and would have been the precondition for any Nth American reinforcement of NATO in case of a Soviet move into Germany
Addition to my ongoing #DragonBear and Safavid-Ottoman thread.... #Realpolitik https://twitter.com/GrayConnolly/status/821205125024731136">https://twitter.com/GrayConno...
My one criticism is that China lives in a USD world where it has to buy its food & energy in USD. China also has to cope not just with the US but with Japan, India, Sth Korea, Australia, Singapore, all wanting to contain China. Plus #DragonBear https://twitter.com/abcnews/status/1163355436881342464">https://twitter.com/abcnews/s...
The Russian side of #DragonBear https://twitter.com/GrayConnolly/status/1019582925292036096">https://twitter.com/GrayConno...
Australia joining the US-UK coalition to secure the Gulf - also operations Australia has conducted since GONZO Station and the first Gulf War in 1990-1991
#DragonBear #Iran https://twitter.com/BevanShields/status/1163968455680282625">https://twitter.com/BevanShie...
The People’s Liberation Army is one of seven forces invited to join “Tsentr – 2019” (Centre-2019), a series of war games on September 16-21, the Russian defence ministry said on Tuesday. #DragonBear https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3023790/china-join-russia-war-games-beijings-ties-washington-unravel">https://www.scmp.com/news/chin...
China to join Russia in war games as Beijing’s Washington ties unravel

PLA among forces from eight nations to take part in six-day military exercises next month.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3023790/china-join-russia-war-games-beijings-ties-washington-unravel
China Promises Further Military Cooperation With Russia
#DragonBear https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-promises-further-military-cooperation-with-russia-11563973937">https://www.wsj.com/articles/...
China Promises Further Military Cooperation With Russia

China vowed to step up military cooperation with Moscow and accused the U.S. of undermining regional stability, a day after China and Russia’s first joint air patrol triggered a rare confrontation...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-promises-further-military-cooperation-with-russia-11563973937
YES => "Should China and Russia& #39;s developing military alliance in north Asia worry Australia?" #DragonBear https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-31/china-and-russia-have-a-growing-military-alliance/11348718">https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019...
Could this small group of rocks in the sea spark war?

The threat of military conflict in north-east Asia is growing.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-31/china-and-russia-have-a-growing-military-alliance/11348718
I will repeat this: China lives in a USD world where China has to buy food and its energy in USD. For all the criticism/brokenness here re Trump, Trump and his ursine instincts get that this reality squeezes China & Xi esp as winter approaches. #DragonBear
I wrote this in April 2018 on the Syrian War and noted this re Russia-China and, also, Iran #DragonBear
http://strategycounsel.blogspot.com/2018/04/the-syrian-war.html">https://strategycounsel.blogspot.com/2018/04/t...
I also wrote this in July 2018 on the "The Sources Of Russian Conduct" and the quandry #DragonBear poses, especially when allied to Iran, for an insecure West
http://strategycounsel.blogspot.com/2018/07/sources-of-russian-conduct.html">https://strategycounsel.blogspot.com/2018/07/s...
This is very good on the all too little know1971 Lin Biao affair (defection to the USSR? military coup against Mao?) which has affected China& #39;s communist leadership and spurred their close control of the PLA/security apparatus ever since #DragonBear https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/2017634/shock-waves-lin-biao-plane-crash-still-echo-lead-chinese-communist-party">https://www.scmp.com/news/chin...
Shock waves from Lin Biao plane crash still echo in lead-up to Chinese Communist Party leadership...

Shock waves from Lin Biao plane crash still echo in lead-up to Chinese Communist Party leadership reshuffle

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/2017634/shock-waves-lin-biao-plane-crash-still-echo-lead-chinese-communist-party
"Mao and the Party decided that the military& #39;s time was up. Lin was at best a stumbling block and at worst a threat. In September 1971, Lin tried to save himself — possibly by a preemptive strike and certainly by a preemptive flight"
#DragonBear https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/cautionary-tale-chinas-lin-biao">https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/c...
The Cautionary Tale of China's Lin Biao

The story of a prominent Maoist-era military leader and politician -- and his mysterious demise -- holds lessons for modern China as it undergoes seismic changes.

https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/cautionary-tale-chinas-lin-biao
Henry Kissinger’s “White House Years” account of Sino-Soviet tensions in 1969 & Soviet inquiries as to the US position should the Soviets attack China over the Ussuri River border clashes
#DragonBear
Henry Kissinger’s “White House Years” account of Sino-Soviet tensions in 1969 & Soviet inquiries as to the US position should the Soviets attack China over the Ussuri River border clashes #DragonBear
Henry Kissinger’s “White House Years” account of Sino-Soviet tensions in 1969 & Soviet inquiries as to the US position should the Soviets attack China over the Ussuri River border clashes #DragonBear
This is very interesting on Russian policy according to the “Primakov Doctrine” - Russia allying with other powers ala #DragonBear to frustrate the US/West & Allies https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/06/05/primakov-not-gerasimov-doctrine-in-action-pub-79254">https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/06/0...
The Primakov (Not Gerasimov) Doctrine in Action

The Primakov doctrine has set Russia’s recent course. The Kremlin must decide if it should continue to follow the doctrine, or if it should pursue a more robust set of global ambitions.

https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/06/05/primakov-not-gerasimov-doctrine-in-action-pub-79254
Poland& #39;s "Fort Trump" deployments => “We have agreed on six locations, we talked about a seventh location,” Blaszczak said at a joint news conference with U.S. national security adviser John Bolton
#DragonBear https://www.reuters.com/article/us-poland-usa-military/warsaw-washington-agree-on-locations-for-new-u-s-troops-in-poland-idUSKCN1VK0TB">https://www.reuters.com/article/u...
Warsaw, Washington agree on locations for new U.S. troops in Poland

Warsaw and Washington have agreed on six locations for new U.S. troops to be stationed in Poland, the country's Defence Minister Mariusz Blaszczak said on Friday, a day after Donald Trump cancele...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-poland-usa-military/warsaw-washington-agree-on-locations-for-new-u-s-troops-in-poland-idUSKCN1VK0TB
China is creating a "white list" for visas - business and academic figures will be admitted if not critical of China. The author& #39;s muppetish surprise that a regime that brutalises Uighur Muslims & Hong Kong would do this to him is astonishing
#DragonBear https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/09/05/what-china-experts-have-do-get-beijings-visa-whitelist/?noredirect=on">https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/...
Opinion | What China experts have to do to get on Beijing’s visa ‘whitelist’

The Party will be happy to let you in the country — as long as you toe the line.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/09/05/what-china-experts-have-do-get-beijings-visa-whitelist/?noredirect=on
Trump decoupling the US from Chinese supply chains will do significant damage to a China still living in a USD world and which needs to buy food & energy in USD. Will solidify Iran-Russia-China quasi barter/Comecon. #DragonBear https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/06/tariffs-are-no-longer-chinas-biggest-problem-in-the-trade-war.html">https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/0...
Tariffs are no longer China's biggest problem in the trade war

The decoupling push is quite different than any U.S. efforts to get China to open up more of its economy to American companies. Instead, it focuses on reducing America's extremely heavy reliance on...

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/06/tariffs-are-no-longer-chinas-biggest-problem-in-the-trade-war.html
Excellent @andrewmichta here:
"China’s expanding economic, military, and political reach across the globe, assisted by Russia’s deepening geostrategic revisionism, should provide the foundation of a shared NATO threat assessment going forward"
#DragonBear https://www.the-american-interest.com/2019/09/11/as-china-surges-europe-is-on-the-menu/">https://www.the-american-interest.com/2019/09/1...
As China Surges, Europe Is on the Menu - The American Interest

China’s naval expansion and commercial push into Europe are aimed at redefining the global trade and security system to the detriment of the democratic West. Europe and the U.S. need to wake up to...

https://www.the-american-interest.com/2019/09/11/as-china-surges-europe-is-on-the-menu/
USD is world& #39;s reserve currency-only alternative is gold-because most are confident USA will be around in 100+ years time vs China, Russia, etal will probably be & #39;unsettled& #39;. For all the tech guff here, people still need to - as I say often - "eat & heat" ie USD buys #DragonBear
Would add as an aisde to #DragonBear that Iran needs USD to buy food as well. Iran does not want barter to buy cheap trinkets from China (Russian weaponry is different but Russia does not need Iran& #39;s energy). The last Shah fell when Bazzaris turned against him over food/inflation
2017 analysis that remains highly relevant=> "The common thread running through the paper is the challenge posed by Russia’s jammers and other electronic warfare tools." #DragonBear https://www.politico.eu/article/us-army-unprepared-to-deal-with-russia-in-europe/">https://www.politico.eu/article/u...
US Army unprepared to deal with Russia in Europe

A self-assessment by the 173rd Airborne Brigade is called ‘a real eye-opener’ to how some critical capabilities to deter Russia have eroded.

https://www.politico.eu/article/us-army-unprepared-to-deal-with-russia-in-europe/
China reeling as recession fears mount, say economists
#DragonBear https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/09/22/china-reeling-recession-fears-mount-say-economists/">https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...
China reeling as recession fears mount, say economists

As the global economy crawled out of the wreckage of the financial crisis, Beijing’s huge stimulus efforts were vital in kickstarting growth again.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/09/22/china-reeling-recession-fears-mount-say-economists/
"Next month, the Russian navy plans to open a maintenance shop in Tartus that will further bolster the base& #39;s capability." #DragonBear https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2019/09/27/naval-base-in-syria-anchors-russia-to-mediterranean/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EBB%2009.27.19&utm_term=Editorial%20-%20Military%20-%20Early%20Bird%20Brief">https://www.navytimes.com/news/your...
Naval base in Syria anchors Russia to Mediterranean

In 2017, Moscow struck a deal with Syrian President Bashar Assad to extend its lease on Tartus for 49 years.

https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2019/09/27/naval-base-in-syria-anchors-russia-to-mediterranean/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EBB%2009.27.19&utm_term=Editorial%20-%20Military%20-%20Early%20Bird%20Brief
This is very good on why Ukraine is a hot mess & notes that the Germans and French (wisely) have no appetite for NATO assuming security responsibilities for Ukraine and Georgia #DragonBear https://thefederalist.com/2019/09/26/its-high-time-to-reassess-the-united-states-relationship-with-ukraine/">https://thefederalist.com/2019/09/2...
It’s High Time To Reassess The United States’ Relationship With Ukraine

Lost in all the partisan bickering is a more important issue: Washington’s relationship with Ukraine and whether that really serves America’s interests.

https://thefederalist.com/2019/09/26/its-high-time-to-reassess-the-united-states-relationship-with-ukraine/
Putin speaking to the Valdai club always interesting but caution that Russia ever actually building this missile defence system for China on the scale necessary would almost certainly require China to pay most/all in USD
#DragonBear https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/10/04/russia-and-china-to-build-a-missile-defense-system-putin-says.html">https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/...
Russia is helping China to build a missile defense system, Putin says

The Russian president was speaking at annual Valdai Club meeting in Russia's Sochi.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/10/04/russia-and-china-to-build-a-missile-defense-system-putin-says.html
"For Beijing, Russia’s skilled engineers and mathematicians are a valuable resource for tech and defense industry giants that are hungry for talent and faced with increasingly unfavorable conditions in the United States and Europe"
#DragonBear https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2019/10/china-russia-are-turning-each-other-tech-help-west-limits-access/160364/?oref=d-topstory">https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2...
China, Russia Deepen Technological Ties

With joint dialogues, incubators, and technology parks, Beijing and Moscow are seeking to overcome deficiencies and compete with the United States.

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2019/10/china-russia-are-turning-each-other-tech-help-west-limits-access/160364/?oref=d-topstory
China also leases large tracts of Russian agricultural land => "More critically, China appears increasingly intent on populating Russia& #39;s Far East with Chinese migrants, which has raised deep-seated Russian fears of outright Chinese annexation" #DragonBear https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/are-russia-and-china-entente-cordiale-21st-century-military-cooperation">https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/a...
Are Russia and China the Entente Cordiale of the 21st Century?

Beijing and Moscow have been enjoying burgeoning military ties in recent years, which could culminate in a new military alliance.

https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/are-russia-and-china-entente-cordiale-21st-century-military-cooperation
"[T]he determination of Chinese and Russian leaders to develop indigenous replacements for foreign, particularly American, technologies, from chips to operating systems, has provided further motivation for cooperation."
#DragonBear https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/a-new-sino-russian-high-tech-partnership-emerges-as-us-tensions-mount/">https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/a-new-sin...
A new Sino-Russian high-tech partnership emerges as US tensions mount | The Strategist

China and Russia have not only expanded their military cooperation but are also undertaking more extensive technological cooperation, including in 5G, artificial intelligence, robotics, biotechnolo...

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/a-new-sino-russian-high-tech-partnership-emerges-as-us-tensions-mount/
What is missed by many is that China, Russia, and Iran, collaborate for various reasons but also their existence as continental states on the geopolitical world island allows them to overcome Allied dominance of sea & air. Not just ports but actual rail and road #DragonBear
French President Macron saying the quiet part out loud here
"With more members than ever and facing much more complex security challenges, Nato seems in Mr Macron& #39;s view to no longer be fit for purpose."
#DragonBear https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50335257">https://www.bbc.com/news/worl...
Nato alliance is brain dead, says Macron

The French president laments a lack of commitment by the United States, Nato's main guarantor.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50335257
This is silly. If NATO did not exist, it would have to be invented. The real problem here lies in the French (who never like anything they cannot lead) and much of the German political class being for hire by the Russians #DragonBear https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/11/08/emmanuel-macron-is-right-nato-is-over/">https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/...
Opinion | Emmanuel Macron is right: NATO is over

The French president just said openly what everyone knows to be true.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/11/08/emmanuel-macron-is-right-nato-is-over/
I will repeat this: China lives in a USD world where China has to buy food & energy in USD. For all the criticism/brokenness here re Trump, Trump& #39;s ursine instincts get this fundamental reality squeezes China & Xi esp as winter approaches.
#DragonBear https://twitter.com/LiveSquawk/status/1197457276778487808">https://twitter.com/LiveSquaw...
Fiona Hill in 2015 opposed arms for Ukraine, rightly, and her arguments made good sense then and now: "In Putin’s view, the United States, the European Union and NATO have launched an economic and proxy war in Ukraine to weaken Russia..."
#DragonBear https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/giving-weapons-to-ukraine-could-goad-putin-into-a-regional-war/2015/02/05/ec2e9680-abf5-11e4-ad71-7b9eba0f87d6_story.html">https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/...
How aiding the Ukrainian military could push Putin into a regional war

The West must help to de-escalate the conflict in Russia and strengthen transatlantic unity.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/giving-weapons-to-ukraine-could-goad-putin-into-a-regional-war/2015/02/05/ec2e9680-abf5-11e4-ad71-7b9eba0f87d6_story.html
For all the criticism of Macron, his position is an entirely realistic one in 2019: what is NATO doing tossing out security guarantees to nations that NATO will likely never honour? Whither #DragonBear ? https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/23/world/europe/nato-france-germany.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/2...
The Latest Political Battleground Between France and Germany: NATO

With relations at a new low, Chancellor Angela Merkel berated President Emmanuel Macron over his comments about the alliance’s ‘‘brain death.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/23/world/europe/nato-france-germany.html
You can follow @GrayConnolly.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled:
There are a lot of misconceptions about the Turkish diaspora in Germany. Since i just finished writing an essay about this topic I thought it's time to give other people
Read more
Las mejores calculadoras online en 2020A thread http://totumat.com/2020/11/26/las-mejores-calculadoras-online-en-2020/ Cuando se estudian asignaturas que requieren de cálculos complicados, nada mejor que contar con una buena calculadora.
Read more
Mitigating #ClimateChange is as much about taking up new techs as about leaving others behindMost studies focus on #coal's global downfall but another #energy tech decline is loomingRead my new
Read more