Eric's guide to reach 2500 points [ #FPL THREAD]

1) Forget everything you thought you knew about FPL. Forget player names, positions, formations, chips, form, fixtures. We’ll reincorporate some of those labels soon. But first, you have to think purely about the goal: 2500 overall points. What do you need to do to reach it?

2) Your team is like a Rubik’s cube. It’s a code to be cracked. Each position offers a range of potential points. To reach 2500 points, you need to average about 227 points-per-player, or 5.98 points-per-player-per-GW (Well, sort of. Keep reading…)

3) CHIPS: A reasonable goal for points from chips:
- Bench Boost: +15 points
- Free Hit: +20 points
- Triple Captain: +15 points
- Total: +50 points

4) CHIPS (cont.): That brings your overall points goal down to 2450 points. It’s humbling to remember that your chips only account for about 50 points of your season total. Not a negligible amount, but your season’s success is won in the week-to-week slog.

5) CAPTAIN: To keep it simple let’s assume you captain Salah all 38 GW’s, and let’s also assume a conservative estimate of 250 points for Salah. With the captain's double-points, Salah scores 500 total on the season. Your overall points goal is now down to 1950.

6) This means your other 10 players need to average 195 points-per-player, or 5.1 points-per-player-per-GW. Only 7 players reached 195 points or more last season, and they’re all at a premium price point. You can only afford to choose a few of them. So let’s start there.

7) PREMIUMS: We’re talking £11.0m+ FWD’s / MID’s and £6.5m+ DEF’s. Most teams will only be able to afford 5-6 premium players this season. The most common Twitter templates offer combinations of the following: 0-1 premium FWD’s, 1-2 premium MID’s, and 2-3 premium DEF’s.

8) PREMIUMS (cont.): Let’s assume you get 4 premium assets in addition to captain Salah. A reasonable estimate for their combined points is 800. This brings our overall points goal down to 1150: 192 points-per-player or 5 points-per-player-per-GW between your remaining 6 starters

9) Your premium assets are set-and-forget. You have to rely on them to reach their point estimates. The remaining 6 players are where you make or break. You have to play your transfers just right in order to turn mid-tier and budget-tier player combos into premium point totals.

10) It’s all about options. In order to turn your mid-tier or budget-tier players into a premium points, your GW1 team needs players who are priced to be easily transferred in and out of your lineup. You need to hit on form and fixtures. Here’s where to find your options:

11) £5.5m-£6.0m DEF’s: There are 38 players in this price tier. That’s a TON of options. But DEF returns are also the most difficult to predict. But you MUST transfer players in and out at this price point to reach your goal. This is where your season will be won or lost.

12) £6.5m-£8.0m MID’s: 33 players in this (admittedly wide) tier. Don’t let the price spread distract you, the best of this group will perform similarly regardless of price. A lot of mid-table clubs in here. Transfer in the flat-track bullies. Avoid matches against the top 6.

13) £8.5m-£9.5m FWD’s: Only four notable players in this price tier—Lacazette, Firmino, Vardy, & Rashford—but all can be relied on for consistent returns and even a big haul in favorable fixtures. It might be worth having a position dedicated to this tier to play the hokey-cokey.

14) £6.5m-£8.0m FWD’s: 13 players in this price tier, all in the bottom or middle of the table (Chelsea excepted). Next to your mid-tier DEF’s, I think this is the 2nd-most important position to master this season. The question seems to be whether you go with 1 or 2 FWD’s.

15) GK’s: You can only expect 140-180 points from your GK. So unfortunately you have decide how much you want to handicap yourself. I’m not a big fan of rotating £4.5m GK’s but it is admittedly the only possible way you could transform your GK position into a premium point total.

16) SUMMARY: The key to success is the transfer game. To be the best at FPL, you need to transform mid-tier and budget-tier players into premium asset point totals (i.e 5 points-per-player-per-GW)...

17) SUMMARY (cont.): ... This will mean profiting 50-80 points versus the average player's set-and-forget totals. It takes a lot of planning to make that happen, so focus on the only question that matters: What do I have to do THIS GW with THIS POSITION to reach my points goal?