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Reserves starting to build back in system. Since March 1st debt ceiling suspension, bottoms in Reserves have marked tops / sideways action & tops in Reserves mark bottoms in asset prices.
FRED charts are pain in the ass didn't feel like figuring out getting two axis labels.
FRED charts are pain in the ass didn't feel like figuring out getting two axis labels.
It's not an exact timing signal just one piece of information to be aware of.
Finally they update the series. Another build. Headwind for asset prices. Still prefer sideways action as opposed to trend up. This should start dropping again first week of August or so. Then market gets real price acceleration (see June).
Bank Reserves should start falling again next week. You know what that means. Banks buying assets. Supportive of risk on. Buy dips.
Bank Reserves fell about $40B week over week.
Aug 8: 1,551,621 million
Aug 15: 1,511,264 million
Gonna post the H.4.1 releases from now on because I found out the FRED data publishes the *average level* during the week instead of the absolute closing level on each Wednesday.
Aug 8: 1,551,621 million
Aug 15: 1,511,264 million
Gonna post the H.4.1 releases from now on because I found out the FRED data publishes the *average level* during the week instead of the absolute closing level on each Wednesday.
Aug 22:
Bank Reserves +6B week over week so got no help from banks adding risk. Trying to find out where the increase came from will sort it out tomorrow.
Bank Reserves +6B week over week so got no help from banks adding risk. Trying to find out where the increase came from will sort it out tomorrow.
All I see is some extra activity in reverse repo. Wonder if that’s gonna be a regular thing cuz if so, that kinda sucks.
Aug 28:
Reserve balances down a little ($17B) week over week. Maybe that reverse repo was a 1 time thing last week.
Reserve balances down a little ($17B) week over week. Maybe that reverse repo was a 1 time thing last week.
Sept 4:
Reserve balances down another FIDDY billy ($50B) week over week. Smooth sailing.
Reserve balances down another FIDDY billy ($50B) week over week. Smooth sailing.
Sept 11:
Reserve balances little changed at +$4B week over week after the big drop last week.
Reserve balances little changed at +$4B week over week after the big drop last week.
Sept 18:
Reserve balances down $73B week over week. Coulda seen a big risk on move in stonks but the repo pinch & subsequent injections crimped that. Bout a week left to get 'er done.
Reserve balances down $73B week over week. Coulda seen a big risk on move in stonks but the repo pinch & subsequent injections crimped that. Bout a week left to get 'er done.
Sept 26:
Reserve balances up $40B week over week. We're now in a reserve build phase. Headwind for risk assets.
Reserve balances up $40B week over week. We're now in a reserve build phase. Headwind for risk assets.
Oct 3:
Reserve balances up $58B week over week. And you see the de-risking that happened in the market since last Thurs. Go back thru this whole thread, months. It's all there fam, real time.
Reserve balances up $58B week over week. And you see the de-risking that happened in the market since last Thurs. Go back thru this whole thread, months. It's all there fam, real time.
Oct 10:
Reserve balances up $42B week over week. Smaller than I would have thought but still a drag on risk. Gonna continue.
Reserve balances up $42B week over week. Smaller than I would have thought but still a drag on risk. Gonna continue.
Oct 17:
Reserve balances DOWN $59B. K so looks like the Fed repo actions have stalled this reserve balance volatility they're gonna keep bank reserves hovering around this $1.5T level. Looks like we're all set going forward don't even worry about the Repo ops & all that shit.
Reserve balances DOWN $59B. K so looks like the Fed repo actions have stalled this reserve balance volatility they're gonna keep bank reserves hovering around this $1.5T level. Looks like we're all set going forward don't even worry about the Repo ops & all that shit.
Oct 23:
Reserve balances down $18B. As suspected, Fed repo actions simply keeping total bank reserves in this $1.5T area. Not growing, not shrinking, stable. Continue ignoring Repo, it's going exactly how it's supposed to.
Reserve balances down $18B. As suspected, Fed repo actions simply keeping total bank reserves in this $1.5T area. Not growing, not shrinking, stable. Continue ignoring Repo, it's going exactly how it's supposed to.
Oct 30:
Reserve balances steady but up $33B week over week. Swings won't as wild but they'll still be there. Probably see reserves build a little next week or two. Market chop/lower while the increase gets digested.
Reserve balances steady but up $33B week over week. Swings won't as wild but they'll still be there. Probably see reserves build a little next week or two. Market chop/lower while the increase gets digested.
Nov 6:
Reserve balances up another $44B. Starting to pump a little more now. Doubt rally has much legs left for now.
Reserve balances up another $44B. Starting to pump a little more now. Doubt rally has much legs left for now.
Nov 13:
Reserve balances up $14B. Not crazy, but not nothing. You can still see how risk stalls as this balance number creeps up. Market gone nowhere for 2 weeks now.
Reserve balances up $14B. Not crazy, but not nothing. You can still see how risk stalls as this balance number creeps up. Market gone nowhere for 2 weeks now.
Nov 20:
Reserve balances down $12B still steady around this $1.5T level
Reserve balances down $12B still steady around this $1.5T level
Nov 27:
Reserve balances up $25B last Wednesday level.
Reserve balances up $25B last Wednesday level.
Dec 4:
Reserve balances up another $34B since last week pushing $1.6T level. Might get one more dip or just chop in equities next week then should ramp into EOY while this level starts dropping again.
Reserve balances up another $34B since last week pushing $1.6T level. Might get one more dip or just chop in equities next week then should ramp into EOY while this level starts dropping again.
Dec 11:
Reserve balance at banks up another $78B. Starting to think the effect of these swings is gone. Was a indicator for swing highs & lows for a few months. Oh well, will still keep an eye on it.
Reserve balance at banks up another $78B. Starting to think the effect of these swings is gone. Was a indicator for swing highs & lows for a few months. Oh well, will still keep an eye on it.
Dec 18:
Forgot this yesterday. Reserve balances down $40B week over week.
Forgot this yesterday. Reserve balances down $40B week over week.
Dec 25:
Reserve balances up another $17B week over week.
Reserve balances up another $17B week over week.
Jan 1:
Reserve balances at banks down $100B(!) since last week. Big swing, market shoulda been up more than 35 handles imo but like I said a few weeks back this correlation has virtually disappeared for now.
Reserve balances at banks down $100B(!) since last week. Big swing, market shoulda been up more than 35 handles imo but like I said a few weeks back this correlation has virtually disappeared for now.
Jan 8:
From yesterday, reserve balances at banks up $108B, erasing prior week's drop.
From yesterday, reserve balances at banks up $108B, erasing prior week's drop.
Jan 16, 2020:
Bank reserve balances +$17B w/w. Holding pretty steady past month or so.
Bank reserve balances +$17B w/w. Holding pretty steady past month or so.
Jan 22, 2020:
Bank reserve balances -$64B w/w.
Bank reserve balances -$64B w/w.
Jan 29, 2020
Bank reserve balances +$3B w/w basically UNCH. Fed doin a good job keeping these steady.
Bank reserve balances +$3B w/w basically UNCH. Fed doin a good job keeping these steady.
Feb 4, 2020
Bank reserve balances +$50B w/w decent pop but holding around this $1.6T level.
Bank reserve balances +$50B w/w decent pop but holding around this $1.6T level.
Feb 12, 2020
Forgot to tack this on yesterday. Reserve balances another +43B w/w pushing $1.7T. Fed maybe trying to level this off with capping repos.
Forgot to tack this on yesterday. Reserve balances another +43B w/w pushing $1.7T. Fed maybe trying to level this off with capping repos.
Feb 19, 2020
Reserve balances down $36B from last week, still in recent range.
Reserve balances down $36B from last week, still in recent range.
Feb 26, 2020
Bank reserve balances +21B w/w not much, still holding steady.
Bank reserve balances +21B w/w not much, still holding steady.
Mar 4, 2020
Bank reserves up +$55B for the week. Lotta stuff workin against us here. I keep forgetting to post this Thurs nights cuz it hasn't done much but here it is.
Bank reserves up +$55B for the week. Lotta stuff workin against us here. I keep forgetting to post this Thurs nights cuz it hasn't done much but here it is.
Mar 11, 2020
Bank reserves +$45B.
Bank reserves +$45B.
Mar 18, 2020
Bank reserves huuuuuuuge jump +$166B past week. Gotta get this down.
Bank reserves huuuuuuuge jump +$166B past week. Gotta get this down.
Mar 25, 2020
Bank reserves another +$402B on the week. Parabolic now.
Bank reserves another +$402B on the week. Parabolic now.
Not updating this anymore because Reserves no longer count in Leverage Ratios for Banks & therefore shouldn't have any effect on anything.
/fin to this thread.
/fin to this thread.
