Read on Twitter
Remember:
1) 1.3°C today
2) 1.5°C by 2023
3) 2°C by 2030-36
4) 3°C by 2040s
5) 4°C by 2055
'By 2055, climate change is likely to have warmed the world by a dangerous 4°C* unless we stop pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere the way we do now' (2009)
*end of civilisation
1) 1.3°C today
2) 1.5°C by 2023
3) 2°C by 2030-36
4) 3°C by 2040s
5) 4°C by 2055
'By 2055, climate change is likely to have warmed the world by a dangerous 4°C* unless we stop pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere the way we do now' (2009)
*end of civilisation
We're currently at ~1.3C using the 1750 baseline. Video:
https://twitter.com/PaulHBeckwith/status/1050116459056250886?s=19
+ here:
https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1138054281955819522?s=19
1.5°C in 2023 = a one off.
But 1.5°C as a sustained trend in the following years looks highly likely (remember baselines complicate things). https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1141776693587251200?s=19
https://twitter.com/PaulHBeckwith/status/1050116459056250886?s=19
+ here:
https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1138054281955819522?s=19
1.5°C in 2023 = a one off.
But 1.5°C as a sustained trend in the following years looks highly likely (remember baselines complicate things). https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1141776693587251200?s=19
'Australian researchers say a global tracker monitoring energy use per person points to 2C warming by 2030.'
This article is from 3 years ago, and energy demand is shooting up not going down (see next tweet).
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/mar/10/dangerous-global-warming-will-happen-sooner-than-thought-study
This article is from 3 years ago, and energy demand is shooting up not going down (see next tweet).
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/mar/10/dangerous-global-warming-will-happen-sooner-than-thought-study
Global energy 'demand grew by 2.3% over the past year, marking the most rapid increase in a decade, according to the report from the IEA...nothing filled the void quite like fossil fuels, which satisfied nearly 70% of the skyrocketing electricity demand.' https://www.sciencealert.com/coal-plants-are-emitting-more-than-ever-and-we-are-headed-for-disaster
We're witnessing non-linear change.
2°C is unavoidable, the question is when does it hit?
The rate of fossil fuel burning is accelerating rapidly, faster than in 2014 when Mann suggested 2036 as a threshold for environmental ruin.
http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/climate-change-2036 https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1122999759680229376?s=19
2°C is unavoidable, the question is when does it hit?
The rate of fossil fuel burning is accelerating rapidly, faster than in 2014 when Mann suggested 2036 as a threshold for environmental ruin.
http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/climate-change-2036 https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1122999759680229376?s=19
It's very interesting (and alarming) to note that if we go back 5 - 10 years we find clear statements regarding catastrophic temperature rise in the near term.
'The latest CAT report...reveals that the world is currently on path for warming of 3°C by 2040' https://www.climatechangenews.com/2012/12/10/weak-doha-deal-leaves-world-on-pathway-to-3c-by-2040/
'The latest CAT report...reveals that the world is currently on path for warming of 3°C by 2040' https://www.climatechangenews.com/2012/12/10/weak-doha-deal-leaves-world-on-pathway-to-3c-by-2040/
4°C by 2055:
'Why so soon? Because temperature rises caused by greenhouse gas emissions are expected to trigger dangerous feedback loops, which will release ever increasing amounts of greenhouse gases'
"the poor will struggle to survive, let alone escape" https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn17864-no-rainforest-no-monsoon-get-ready-for-a-warmer-world/
'Why so soon? Because temperature rises caused by greenhouse gas emissions are expected to trigger dangerous feedback loops, which will release ever increasing amounts of greenhouse gases'
"the poor will struggle to survive, let alone escape" https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn17864-no-rainforest-no-monsoon-get-ready-for-a-warmer-world/
Far more greenhouse gases are being emitted today than in 2009. Even if we were to get back to 2009 levels by 2030, we'd still be heading for 4°C by 2055.
This is an emergency. We need emergency non-market action to shut down ecocidal industries.
When will emissions be slashed?
This is an emergency. We need emergency non-market action to shut down ecocidal industries.
When will emissions be slashed?
(I meant to include thisto further support the suggestion that 1.5°C will be reached in the 2020s) https://twitter.com/APMather/status/1141986405352202240?s=19
to further support the suggestion that 1.5°C will be reached in the 2020s) https://twitter.com/APMather/status/1141986405352202240?s=19
And more on 3°C calamity by the 2040s from a rare, easily-missed 2012 BBC article which completely fails to convey the full enormity of climate chaos: https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1142731579988545538?s=19
'During the Pliocene period, global temperatures were about 2-4 degrees Celsius warmer than today'
'By 2030, under a business-as-usual scenario, Pliocene-like conditions become the closest match'
https://grist.org/article/welcome-to-the-eocene-where-ice-sheets-turn-into-swamps/
1.8°C - 3.6°C by 2030?
Horrific. https://m.phys.org/news/2018-12-humans-reversing-climate-clock-million.html
'By 2030, under a business-as-usual scenario, Pliocene-like conditions become the closest match'
https://grist.org/article/welcome-to-the-eocene-where-ice-sheets-turn-into-swamps/
1.8°C - 3.6°C by 2030?
Horrific. https://m.phys.org/news/2018-12-humans-reversing-climate-clock-million.html
