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Remember:
1) 1.3°C today
2) 1.5°C by 2023
3) 2°C by 2030-36
4) 3°C by 2040s
5) 4°C by 2055
& #39;By 2055, climate change is likely to have warmed the world by a dangerous 4°C* unless we stop pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere the way we do now& #39; (2009)
*end of civilisation
1) 1.3°C today
2) 1.5°C by 2023
3) 2°C by 2030-36
4) 3°C by 2040s
5) 4°C by 2055
& #39;By 2055, climate change is likely to have warmed the world by a dangerous 4°C* unless we stop pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere the way we do now& #39; (2009)
*end of civilisation
We& #39;re currently at ~1.3C using the 1750 baseline. Video:
https://twitter.com/PaulHBeckwith/status/1050116459056250886?s=19
+">https://twitter.com/PaulHBeck... here:
https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1138054281955819522?s=19
1.5°C">https://twitter.com/ClimateBe... in 2023 = a one off.
But 1.5°C as a sustained trend in the following years looks highly likely (remember baselines complicate things). https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1141776693587251200?s=19">https://twitter.com/ClimateBe...
https://twitter.com/PaulHBeckwith/status/1050116459056250886?s=19
+">https://twitter.com/PaulHBeck... here:
https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1138054281955819522?s=19
1.5°C">https://twitter.com/ClimateBe... in 2023 = a one off.
But 1.5°C as a sustained trend in the following years looks highly likely (remember baselines complicate things). https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1141776693587251200?s=19">https://twitter.com/ClimateBe...
& #39;Australian researchers say a global tracker monitoring energy use per person points to 2C warming by 2030.& #39;
This article is from 3 years ago, and energy demand is shooting up not going down (see next tweet).
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Down pointing backhand index" aria-label="Emoji: Down pointing backhand index"> https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/mar/10/dangerous-global-warming-will-happen-sooner-than-thought-study">https://www.theguardian.com/environme...
This article is from 3 years ago, and energy demand is shooting up not going down (see next tweet).
Global energy & #39;demand grew by 2.3% over the past year, marking the most rapid increase in a decade, according to the report from the IEA...nothing filled the void quite like fossil fuels, which satisfied nearly 70% of the skyrocketing electricity demand.& #39; https://www.sciencealert.com/coal-plants-are-emitting-more-than-ever-and-we-are-headed-for-disaster">https://www.sciencealert.com/coal-plan...
We& #39;re witnessing non-linear change.
2°C is unavoidable, the question is when does it hit?
The rate of fossil fuel burning is accelerating rapidly, faster than in 2014 when Mann suggested 2036 as a threshold for environmental ruin.
http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/climate-change-2036">https://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/cli... https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1122999759680229376?s=19">https://twitter.com/ClimateBe...
2°C is unavoidable, the question is when does it hit?
The rate of fossil fuel burning is accelerating rapidly, faster than in 2014 when Mann suggested 2036 as a threshold for environmental ruin.
http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/climate-change-2036">https://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/cli... https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1122999759680229376?s=19">https://twitter.com/ClimateBe...
It& #39;s very interesting (and alarming) to note that if we go back 5 - 10 years we find clear statements regarding catastrophic temperature rise in the near term.
& #39;The latest CAT report...reveals that the world is currently on path for warming of 3°C by 2040& #39; https://www.climatechangenews.com/2012/12/10/weak-doha-deal-leaves-world-on-pathway-to-3c-by-2040/">https://www.climatechangenews.com/2012/12/1...
& #39;The latest CAT report...reveals that the world is currently on path for warming of 3°C by 2040& #39; https://www.climatechangenews.com/2012/12/10/weak-doha-deal-leaves-world-on-pathway-to-3c-by-2040/">https://www.climatechangenews.com/2012/12/1...
4°C by 2055:
& #39;Why so soon? Because temperature rises caused by greenhouse gas emissions are expected to trigger dangerous feedback loops, which will release ever increasing amounts of greenhouse gases& #39;
"the poor will struggle to survive, let alone escape" https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn17864-no-rainforest-no-monsoon-get-ready-for-a-warmer-world/">https://www.newscientist.com/article/d...
& #39;Why so soon? Because temperature rises caused by greenhouse gas emissions are expected to trigger dangerous feedback loops, which will release ever increasing amounts of greenhouse gases& #39;
"the poor will struggle to survive, let alone escape" https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn17864-no-rainforest-no-monsoon-get-ready-for-a-warmer-world/">https://www.newscientist.com/article/d...
Far more greenhouse gases are being emitted today than in 2009. Even if we were to get back to 2009 levels by 2030, we& #39;d still be heading for 4°C by 2055.
This is an emergency. We need emergency non-market action to shut down ecocidal industries.
When will emissions be slashed?
This is an emergency. We need emergency non-market action to shut down ecocidal industries.
When will emissions be slashed?
(I meant to include thishttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Down pointing backhand index" aria-label="Emoji: Down pointing backhand index">to further support the suggestion that 1.5°C will be reached in the 2020s) https://twitter.com/APMather/status/1141986405352202240?s=19">https://twitter.com/APMather/...
And more on 3°C calamity by the 2040s from a rare, easily-missed 2012 BBC article which completely fails to convey the full enormity of climate chaos: https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1142731579988545538?s=19">https://twitter.com/ClimateBe...
& #39;During the Pliocene period, global temperatures were about 2-4 degrees Celsius warmer than today& #39;
& #39;By 2030, under a business-as-usual scenario, Pliocene-like conditions become the closest match& #39;
https://grist.org/article/welcome-to-the-eocene-where-ice-sheets-turn-into-swamps/
1.8°C">https://grist.org/article/w... - 3.6°C by 2030?
Horrific. https://m.phys.org/news/2018-12-humans-reversing-climate-clock-million.html">https://m.phys.org/news/2018...
& #39;By 2030, under a business-as-usual scenario, Pliocene-like conditions become the closest match& #39;
https://grist.org/article/welcome-to-the-eocene-where-ice-sheets-turn-into-swamps/
1.8°C">https://grist.org/article/w... - 3.6°C by 2030?
Horrific. https://m.phys.org/news/2018-12-humans-reversing-climate-clock-million.html">https://m.phys.org/news/2018...
3.5°C to 4°C by 2050. https://www.sciencealert.com/by-2050-climate-change-could-alter-human-civilisation-as-we-know-it">https://www.sciencealert.com/by-2050-c...
